View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. During uncertain markets, clients start questioning the benefits of staying invested. With YCharts, you can easily convey to clients why long-term investing is the best strategy. YCharts’ Top 10 Visuals offers ready-to-use charts that make these exact conversations easier. The deck visualizes […]
View the video of this post here. The State of the Markets in 10 Charts… 1) More Milestones, More All-Time Highs The S&P 500 crossed above 7,700 this week for the first time, its 8th 100-point milestone of the year. A year ago it was at 6,300. 5 years ago it was at 4,400. 10 years […]
View the video of this post here. AI is supposed to save advisors time – not become another tab to manage. That’s why YCharts built Y, an AI agent that works directly inside the platform advisors already use. Y can analyze portfolios, compare investments, build proposals, and create client-ready materials. Upload a prospect’s brokerage statement and […]
View the video of this post here. Managing your wealth involves much more than choosing investments. Creative Planning brings financial planning, investment management, tax strategy, estate planning and insurance together under one roof, with a dedicated team focused on your unique goals. At Creative Planning, we’re proud to help clients experience a richer way to wealth […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts, a powerful investment research platform that helps advisors analyze markets, compare securities, and create compelling client visuals. Learn more and get 20% off your initial YCharts Professional subscription (new customers only). The State of the Markets in 10 Charts… 1) Diversification Matters Again A […]
View the video of this post here. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE for weekly videos breaking down the most important charts, trends, and investing lessons. Helping you separate the signal from the noise. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Hundred-Year Flood “This is a hundred-year flood. I’ve never seen […]
View the video of this post here. Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US Consumer Dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained 852% (7.8% per year) AFTER adjusting for inflation. Why you need to invest for the long run, in one […]
View the video of this post here. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Biggest IPO in History SpaceX officially became the biggest IPO in history, raising a total of $85.7 billion. That’s $60 billion more than the 2nd largest IPO, Saudi Aramco ($25.6 billion raised in 2019). At […]
View the video of this post here. Tomorrow (6/9) at 2 PM ET, I’ll be joining YCharts for a Midyear Market Outlook. We’ll take a data-driven look at where markets stand today, what’s changed over the past six months, and what investors should be watching as we head into the second half of 2026. Topics will […]
View the video of this post here. Something I’m excited about is a new offering from YCharts called Communities. It gives advisors a way to follow research and insights from voices they already trust, directly inside the platform many use daily for investment research and client communication. That means instead of trying to recreate the charts […]
View the video of this post here. Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US Consumer Dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained 828% (7.7% per year) AFTER adjusting for inflation. Why you need to invest for the long run, in one […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. By early May, advisors are already fielding mid-year client questions: How are things tracking? What should we change? YCharts helps you answer in real time with quick portfolio analysis, performance comparisons, and client-ready charts – without rebuilding everything from scratch. It can […]
View the video of this post here. 📊 Charts that don’t need a PhD to understand.🌎 Big-picture thinking without the TV drama.🎯 Insights you can actually use. Subscribe to our YouTube Channel HERE for signal over noise. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Manias As long as human beings are involved […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. As tax season wraps up, many advisors shift from filing conversations to decision-making: what to do with cash, how to adjust portfolios, and how to communicate next steps clearly. The challenge isn’t the analysis, it’s turning it into something clients can actually […]
View the video of this post here. 📊 Weekly chart breakdowns. 🌎Big-picture market themes. 🎯Actionable insights. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE to separate the signal from the noise. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) What Happens When Volatility Spikes? One year ago during the tariff turmoil, the S&P 500 fell […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts helps advisors create clean, client-ready visuals that clearly show portfolio positioning, allocations, and how decisions align with long-term goals. Build proposals, comparison charts, and reports in minutes – all in one place. Try YCharts for free, and save 20% when you […]
View the video of this post here. Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US Consumer Dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained 789% (7.6% per year) AFTER adjusting for inflation. Why you need to invest for the long run, in one […]
View the video of this post here. 📊 Weekly chart breakdowns. 🌎Big-picture market themes. 🎯Actionable insights. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE to separate the signal from the noise. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) A Record Oil Spike Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983. Last week’s 36% spike was […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Private equity, private credit, and real assets now represent a meaningful slice of many portfolios, but evaluating them alongside public markets isn’t simple. YCharts now supports Hamilton Lane private markets benchmarks, allowing advisors to analyze alternatives within the same framework as equities, […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts helps advisors research faster, visualize market data clearly, and turn complex portfolio questions into client-ready insights. Advisors using YCharts report saving ~20 hours/month across research, proposals, and client prep. And with built-in AI tools, it’s easier to see what changed, why […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. What Are THE Most Important Charts to Watch in 2026? Join me and YCharts for a live show on January 27 as we break down what history, fundamentals, and global market trends are telling us right now. Register here to save your spot. The […]
View the video of this post here. Get a FREE Wealth Path Analysis from Creative Planning to ensure you’re on the right path for 2026 and beyond. Creative Planning is proud to provide comprehensive wealth management services to clients in all 50 states and abroad, with over $385 billion in assets under management and advisement. So whether you’re […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Is the AI Boom the Next Dot-Com Bubble? Watch a replay of our live show on this question (YouTube) and download the slide deck HERE. Get 20% off your YCharts Professional subscription when you initially sign up for the service. The most important […]
View the video of this post here. 📊 Weekly chart breakdowns. 🌎Big-picture market themes. 🎯Actionable insights. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE to separate the signal from the noise. 1) Don’t Fear All-Time Highs 2024 was a great year for the U.S. equity market, with the S&P 500 hitting 57 all-time highs. Was that something to […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Is the AI boom a bubble… or the early innings of a supercycle? Join me and YCharts for a live show on December 4th breaking down how today’s boom compares to past cycles like the Dot-Com era. We’ll look at valuations, growth trends, […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Is the AI boom a bubble… or the early innings of a supercycle? Join me and YCharts for a live show on December 4th breaking down how today’s boom compares to past cycles like the Dot-Com era. We’ll look at valuations, growth […]
View the video of this post here. Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US Consumer Dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained 874% (7.9% per year) AFTER adjusting for inflation. Why you need to invest, in one chart… At Creative Planning, […]
View the video of this post here. 📊 Weekly chart breakdowns. 🌎Big-picture market themes. 🎯Actionable insights. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE to separate the signal from the noise. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Active Managers Go All-In Active managers reduced their equity exposure down to 35% back in April […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Over the next decade, trillions will pass from older generations to their kids and grandkids.But here’s the catch – 80% of those heirs will fire their parents’ advisor. The Great Wealth Transfer Deck from YCharts helps advisors prepare for that shift – […]
View the video of this post here. Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US Consumer Dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained 888% (8% per year) AFTER adjusting for inflation. Why you need to invest, in one chart… At Creative Planning, […]
View the video of this post here. 📊 Weekly chart breakdowns. 🌎Big-picture market themes. 🎯Actionable insights. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE to separate the signal from the noise. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Markets Are Partying Like It’s 1999 Mania is in the air again. The Nasdaq crossed above […]
View the video of this post here. This Week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. After a decade of near-zero rates, bonds are back in the spotlight. Clients want to know: Is credit risk rising? How do ladders compare to funds? Are their income strategies still holding up? To help you answer those questions, YCharts now offers bond-level data […]
View the video of this post here. This Week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. The Fed just resumed cutting rates after holding steady for over a year. Unemployment is climbing, bond yields are falling, and cash payouts are starting to fade. YCharts’ new 2025 Fed Rate Cut Deck gives you insights on: Download your free copy today to […]
View the video of this post here. Get a FREE Wealth Path Analysis from Creative Planning to ensure you’re on the right path to financial freedom. What’s included? Creative Planning is proud to provide comprehensive wealth management services to clients in all 50 states and abroad, with over $370 billion in assets under management and advisement. So whether […]
View the video of this post here. 📊 Weekly chart breakdowns. 🌎Big-picture market themes. 🎯Actionable insights. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE to separate the signal from the noise. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Records Are Made to Be Broken The Dow moved back to an all-time high in August […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Markets don’t move in straight lines, and 2025 has been a masterclass in that. That’s why I partnered with YCharts to create a visual breakdown of the most important market trends and what they could signal for the road ahead. Download the […]
View the video of this post here. “The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.” – Charlie Munger Subscribe to our YouTube channel for long-term trends, rational thinking, and timeless principles. This is a special edition of the Week in Charts where I break down the state of the markets. Here’s a snapshot of […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Markets don’t move in straight lines, and 2025 has been a masterclass in that. That’s why I partnered with YCharts to create the 2025 Halftime Report deck: a visual breakdown of the most important market trends from the first half of the year, and […]
View the video of this post here. “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett Everyone wants to get rich quick. Buffett got rich by being patient. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for long-term trends, rational thinking, and timeless principles. The most important charts and themes […]
View the video of this post here. 📊 Weekly chart breakdowns. 🌎Big-picture market themes. 🎯Actionable insights. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE to separate the signal from the noise. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Breaking Down the Big, Beautiful Bill Here are the major tax changes under the Big Beautiful […]
View the video of this post here. Join me for a fast-paced, 30-minute webinar with YCharts on Wednesday, July 9th where we’ll break down the key market shifts from the first half of the year—and what they mean for investors going forward. We’ll cover Fed signals, sector rotations, and under-the-radar risks, plus share charts and insights […]
View the video of this post here. 🚨 Special Offer for Week in Charts Readers 🚨Get a FREE Wealth Path Analysis from Creative Planning Wondering if you’re truly on track to meet your financial goals? Our complimentary Wealth Path Analysis covers it all: ✅ Portfolio Checkup – Is your portfolio aligned with your goals and risk […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Still using Fed sites and spreadsheets for yield data? Upgrade to YCharts’ new Yield Curve Tool — built for advisors who need fast, accurate macro insights. Visualize real-time Treasury curves, track key spreads, and spot intraday shifts — all in one place. Start using the […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Still using Fed sites and spreadsheets for yield data? Upgrade to YCharts’ new Yield Curve Tool — built for advisors who need fast, accurate macro insights. Visualize real-time Treasury curves, track key spreads, and spot intraday shifts — all in one place. Start […]
View the video of this post here. I’m excited to be speaking at Creative Planning’s CONNECT25 event in Chicago on June 26. I’ll be sharing insights on “7 Timeless Rules for Investors” alongside Peter Mallouk, followed by thought-provoking speakers on AI and the science of happiness. If you’re in the Chicago area, we’d love for you […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. How do you know if a portfolio truly fits the level of risk a client is comfortable with? It’s one of the toughest questions in investing, and one of the most important when advising. That’s why YCharts launched Risk Profiles, a new way for […]
View the video of this post here. At Creative Planning, we help you make smarter decisions with your money—so you can live life on your own terms. As one of the largest independent financial advisory firms in the U.S., we offer truly comprehensive wealth management, tailored to your specific goals. Ready to see what that looks […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. How do you know if a portfolio truly fits the level of risk a client is comfortable with? It’s one of the toughest questions in investing, and one of the most important when advising. That’s why YCharts launched Risk Profiles, a new way for […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Spend less time researching and more time advising with YCharts’ new AI Chat, built specifically for financial professionals. Instantly access key financial data, SEC filings, and market insights in a single search, seamlessly integrated into your YCharts workflow. Start using AI Chat today and get […]
View the video of this post here. In times of market uncertainty, staying informed and focused is more important than ever. At Creative Planning, we’re here to help you navigate today’s volatility with clarity, confidence, and a plan that aligns with your long-term goals. Get a FREE Portfolio Checkup from Creative Planning to ensure you’re on the right […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Spend less time researching and more time advising with YCharts’ new AI Chat, built specifically for financial professionals. Instantly access key financial data, SEC filings, and market insights in a single search, seamlessly integrated into your YCharts workflow. Start using AI Chat today and get […]
View the video of this post here. Your home is your castle, and if you’re like most Americans, it is also the single largest component of your net worth. Naturally, you would love to see your home appreciate in value over time. But by how much – what’s a reasonable expectation? To answer that question, let’s […]
View the video of this post here. When investors think about risk, it’s the extremes that immediately come to mind… The commonality: fear, panic, and catastrophic losses. While these periods are all front and center in our minds, the reality is that risk is always present, even if you can’t always see it. It’s now been […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Big changes are coming for advisors. If your investment research and analytics platform is being phased out, you can either get pushed into a system that doesn’t fit your workflow or you can take control and switch to a better solution. For a limited […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. “Sell in May and go away.” “Timing the market is the key to success.” “Now is the wrong time to invest.” We hear these classic investing myths all the time and many believe them. YCharts’ Debunking Investing Myths Deck is packed with data and visuals […]
View the video of this post here. Tax season is here and at Creative Planning we have over 300 CPAs to help minimize your tax burden while working with our wealth managers to maximize your potential returns. Reach out today for FREE Wealth Path Analysis to ensure you’re on the right path for 2025 and beyond. Here’s our […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. “Sell in May and go away.” “Timing the market is the key to success.” “Now is the wrong time to invest.” We hear these classic investing myths all the time and many believe them. YCharts’ Debunking Investing Myths Deck is packed with data and visuals […]
View the video of this post here. Tax season is here and at Creative Planning we have over 300 CPAs to help minimize your tax burden while working with our wealth managers to maximize your potential returns. Reach out today for FREE Wealth Path Analysis to ensure you’re on the right path for 2025 and beyond. […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Their new “Debunking Investment Myths” deck is packed with data and visuals every investor can learn from. Click here to download the deck and mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off when you first sign up for the […]
View the video of this post here. Get a FREE Wealth Path Analysis from Creative Planning to ensure you’re on the right path for 2025 and beyond. Creative Planning is proud to provide comprehensive wealth management services to clients in all 50 states and abroad, with over $325 billion in assets under management and advisement. So whether you’re […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Click here to view my live show with YCharts covering the Most Important Rules for Investors and What to Expect in 2025. Here are the charts and themes that tell the […]
“Why should I own anything other than the S&P 500?” This is the most common question investors are asking entering 2025. Why are they asking it? Because over the last decade, the S&P 500 has outpaced every other major asset class by a wide margin, gaining 13.1% per year versus 9.0% for U.S. small cap […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Click here to view my recent live show with YCharts covering the Most Important Rules for Investors and What to Expect in 2025. Put these charts on your […]
View the video of this post here. As we approach the start of a new year, get a FREE Wealth Path Analysis from Creative Planning to ensure you’re on the right path for 2025 and beyond. What’s included? Creative Planning is proud to provide comprehensive wealth management services to clients in all 50 states and abroad, with over […]
View the video of this post here. As we approach year end, get a FREE Wealth Path Analysis from Creative Planning to ensure you’re on the right path for 2025 and beyond. What’s included? 1) Returns Are Lumpy The stock market goes up over time, but not all the time. It’s far from straight line higher and most […]
View the video of this post here. Join me for a big year end show with YCharts on December 11 (2pm EST) covering my most important rules on markets and investing and what to expect for 2025. Register HERE to reserve your spot (if you can’t attend live, sign up to receive a replay). The most important […]
View the video of this post here. As we approach year end, get a FREE Wealth Path Analysis from Creative Planning to ensure you’re on the right path for 2025 and beyond. We work with clients in all 50 states and abroad, with over $325 billion in assets under management and advisement. Why not give your wealth […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. With YCharts’ NEW Quick Extract Tool, say goodbye to hours of manual data entry and hello to seamless portfolio creation. Whether it’s a PDF, screenshot, or spreadsheet, the AI-Powered Quick Extract will upload data from client portfolios in any format, giving you more […]
View the video of this post here. The 2024 Presidential Election is finally here. If it’s anything like the last few elections, many investors will use this as a reason to make big changes to their investments. Historically, has mixing politics and your portfolio been a good idea? No. The stock market tends to go up […]
View the video of this post here. The US CPI Inflation Rate has moved down to 2.4% and the Fed is expecting it to remain near their target of 2% over the next few years. Historically, which asset classes have performed best when inflation is “in range?” Get the latest research from YCharts on this topic […]
View the video of this post here. Creative Planning is now offering a FREE Wealth Path Analysis to all Week in Charts Readers. What’s included? Creative Planning is proud to provide comprehensive wealth management services to clients in all 50 states and abroad, with over $325 billion in assets under management and advisement. So whether you’re in New […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Goldilocks Moment Not too hot. Not too cold. Just right. It’s the “Goldilocks” moment for […]
View the video of this post here. Receive a Free Wealth Path Analysis from a Creative Planning advisor today. At Creative Planning, we’re proud to help clients experience a richer way to wealth in all 50 states and abroad, with over $325 billion in assets under management and advisement. So whether you’re in California, Texas, Florida, […]
View the video of this post here. The US Inflation rate has been moving down and the Fed is expecting it to remain near their target of 2% over the next few years. Which asset classes have performed best when inflation is tame? Get the latest research from YCharts on this topic HERE. The most important […]
View the video of this post here. Every week I do a video breaking down the most important charts and themes in markets and investing. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE for the latest content. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Inflation Downtrend Continues The downtrend in US inflation continues, […]
View the video of this post here. The Rate Cuts Are Coming! The only question: how fast will they go down. Join me for a big live show with YCharts this Thursday (September 12 @ 2pm EST) covering everything you need to know about the huge shift in Fed policy and its impact on markets/economy. Register HERE to reserve your […]
Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving the weekly letter with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. The Week in Charts Newsletter is one of most popular financial newsletters in the world. Sign up here for free right now. — The longest yield curve inversion in US history has ended at 783 consecutive days. […]
View the video of this post here. Could your money be working harder for you? Get a FREE Second Look on your entire portfolio today when you schedule a call or meeting with a Creative Planning advisor. At Creative Planning, we’re proud to help clients experience a richer way to wealth in all 50 states and […]
View the video of this post here. The rate cuts are finally coming, with market participants expecting the Fed Funds Rate to be 100 bps lower by year end. What impact will this have on markets and the economy? Don’t miss my big live show with YCharts on September 12 covering everything you need to know about the coming […]
View the video of this post here. “Don’t put off until tomorrow what you can do today.” – Ben Franklin Get a FREE Wealth Path Analysis from a Creative Planning advisor today and make sure you have a solid portfolio and sound financial plan to meet your goals and needs in the future. Creative Planning is […]
Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving the weekly letter with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. The Week in Charts Newsletter is one of most popular financial newsletters in the world. Sign up here for free right now. __ The $VIX has declined 58% (from 38.57 to 16.19) over the last 7 trading […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts, an all-in-one platform for investment research and client communication. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free YCharts trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Monday Morning Panic The Monday […]
View the video of this post here. Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US consumer dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained 960% (8% per year) after adjusting for inflation. With US National Debt hitting another record high of $35 trillion […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Click here to view my recent live show with YCharts covering the 4 most important charts to watch in the back half of 2024. The most important charts and themes […]
Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving the weekly letter with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. The Week in Charts Newsletter is one of most popular financial newsletters in the world. Sign up here for free right now. __ US Small Caps ($IWM ETF) are up 7% over the last 10 trading days […]
Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving the weekly letter with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. The Week in Charts Newsletter is one of most popular financial newsletters in the world. Sign up here for free right now. — US Small Caps ($IWM ETF) are up 10.4% over the last 4 trading days […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Click here to view my recent live show with YCharts covering the 4 most important charts to watch in the back half of 2024. The most important […]
Today we witnessed one of the wildest trading days in the history of markets, with all of the major secular trends of the past decade reversing course in dramatic fashion. At the top of that list: the 180 degree shift in market cap leadership. Small caps ($IWM ETF), which had been lagging large caps ($SPY […]
It’s a mega cap world. The 50 largest stocks in the S&P 500 have a median return of +13% this year while the 50 smallest stocks in the index are down 12%. Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving the weekly letter with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. The Week in […]
The ratio of Growth stocks to Value stocks in the US is at its highest level March 2000, the peak of the dot-com bubble. What happened in the 7 years after that? A complete reversal, with Value outperforming Growth by an enormous margin (+85% vs. -29%). Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving the […]
View the video of this post here. Do you have a portfolio and financial plan that meets your needs for today and goals for tomorrow? Get a second look from Creative Planning with a FREE Wealth Path Analysis. Schedule a call or meeting today to receive a Portfolio Checkup, Retirement Roadmap, Proactive Tax Strategies, and more. […]
Over the last 16 years, US stocks have gained 502% vs. 104% for International stocks and 65% for Emerging Markets. This is by far the longest cycle of US outperformance that we’ve ever seen. Happy 4th everyone! Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving the weekly letter with the most interesting charts and themes […]
Apple’s Price to Sales ratio moved above 9 this week, the highest valuation level in company history. This is 3x higher than what investors were paying for Apple shares in early 2019. Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving the weekly letter with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. The Week in […]
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 47 months, by far the longest bond bear market in history. Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving the weekly letter with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. The Week in Charts Newsletter is one of most popular financial newsletters in […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. If you missed my live show with them on the 3 Major Stock Market Trends at Extremes, view the replay here. Taxes are inevitable, and minimizing your clients’ tax burdens is a key part of your role as a financial advisor. Instead of […]
The US Tech sector has trounced everything else in the last decade, up 706% versus a 237% gain for the S&P 500 (note: total returns). Its relative strength versus the broad market hit a new record high this month, surpassing the prior high from March 2000. Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving the […]
The #1 story stock of the 1990s dot-com boom was Cisco Systems ($CSCO). The #1 story stock of the AI boom today is Nvidia ($NVDA). Here’s a look at how the last 5 years for Nvidia compares to Cisco’s incredible 5-year run that ended in March 2000: Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving […]
Driven by the outsized gains from the largest US companies, we’re now seeing a huge dispersion in the valuations across the S&P 500. The 50 largest companies in the index are trading at 5.6x sales while the 50 smallest are trading at 1.6x sales (median values). See video on this topic here. Join tens of […]
The top 5 holdings in the S&P 500 now make up 27% of the index, the highest concentration we’ve seen with data going back to 1980. Join tens of thousands of investors in receiving the weekly letter with the most interesting charts and themes in markets. The Week in Charts Newsletter is one of most […]
View the video of this post here. Creative Planning is now offering a FREE Wealth Path Analysis to all Week in Charts Readers. What’s included? Creative Planning is proud to provide comprehensive wealth management services to clients in all 50 states and abroad. So whether you’re in New York, California, Texas, Florida or any of the states in […]
The biggest US companies have been dominating the equity market for well over a decade. As a result, the outperformance of US large caps (S&P 500) over small caps (Russell 2000) is now at its most extreme level since November 24, 1999. What happened in the 7 years following the 1999 extreme? Reversion to the […]
10 years ago Nvidia had a market cap of $10.9 billion. Since then, its market cap has increased 305x to $3.33 trillion. This week, Nvidia surpassed Apple and Microsoft to become the largest company in the world. There is no impossible in markets. Creative Planning is now offering a FREE Wealth Path Analysis to all Week in […]
Growth stock investors are partying like it’s 2000, with Growth’s outperformance versus Value at its highest level since July of that year. What happened in the 7 years following July 2000? Reversion to the mean. Growth stocks declined 27% while Value stocks gained 84%. Creative Planning is now offering a FREE Wealth Path Analysis to all Week […]
US stocks have been outperforming international stocks for 16 years running, and by a huge margin. The result: we’re now 3 standard deviations above the mean in terms of historical US outperformance, a record high. Creative Planning is now offering a FREE Wealth Path Analysis to all Week in Charts Readers. What’s included? Creative Planning is proud […]
View the video of this post here. Don’t miss my big live show with YCharts coming to you next Tuesday (June 18) @ 2pm EST. Register HERE to reserve your spot (if you can’t attend live, sign up to receive a replay). Topics: The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Positive and Negative Framing on Inflation Framing […]
View the video of this post here. Creative Planning is now offering a FREE Wealth Path Analysis to all Week in Charts Readers. What’s included? Creative Planning is proud to provide comprehensive wealth management services to clients in all 50 states and abroad. So whether you’re in New York, California, Texas, Florida or any of the […]
View the video of this post here. Don’t miss my big live show with YCharts on June 18 @ 2pm EST. Register HERE to reserve your spot. What will we be discussing? The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The AI Show Goes On All eyes were on Nvidia last week as […]
View the video of this post here. Could your money be working harder for you? Make sure you’re on the right path to reach your goals by getting a second look on your portfolio and financial plan. Creative Planning is proud to provide comprehensive wealth management services to clients in all 50 states and abroad. So whether […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Every four years, the uncertainty surrounding the next president and their policies spark concern among investors. YCharts has you covered with their latest Election Guide, to help you successfully guide clients through election season and tackle commonly asked questions head-on. Grab your free copy here […]
View the video of this post here. Could your money be working harder for you? The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Labor Market Cooling There are a number of signs currently pointing to a cooling of the labor market… 2) Bad News Is Good News? Why did the S&P 500 rally 1.3% […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your YCharts subscription when you initially sign up for the service. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Expectations Are Everything When it comes to markets, expectations are everything, and during earnings season […]
View the video of this post here. Could your money be working harder for you? The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The First Correction of the Year The S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average last week for the first since last November. That ended the 10th longest uptrend in the […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Click here to download their top 10 visuals for client and prospect meetings. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Inflation Heating Up Inflation is moving in […]
View the video of this post here. Could your money be working harder for you? The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Closing the Jobs Gap 303,000 US jobs were added in March, well above the consensus estimate of 200k jobs. This was the 39th consecutive month of jobs growth. The top […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Their recent Client Communication Survey (800 financial advisor clients) found that 8 in 10 clients valued increased communication. See the full Survey Results Here. And mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your YCharts subscription when you initially sign up for the […]
View the video of this post here. Experience a Richer Way to Wealth… The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Fed’s 2% Inflation Farce The Fed chose to hold interest rates steady once again at a range of 5.25-5.50%. This was not a surprise. What was a surprise, however, is the […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. In their latest Client Communication Survey, YCharts sought insights from nearly 800 financial advisor clients to uncover what clients truly desire from their advisors. The most eye-opening finding? 75% of respondents either switched advisors or contemplated doing so in 2023 — a stark increase […]
Note: Subscribe to our YouTube Channel here. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Here Comes the FOMO The fear of missing out (FOMO) is in the air again. What brough it back? Parabolic advances that have become too extreme to ignore. Nvidia ($NVDA) is at the top of that list, […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your YCharts subscription when you initially sign up for the service. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) All News Is Good News All news has been received as good news thus far […]
View the video of this post here. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Unfathomable Growth Expectations were sky-high heading into the Nvidia earnings report and they were exceeded on all fronts. The growth rate for a company this large is simply unfathomable… Investors loved the results, driving up Nvidia’s market cap […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your YCharts subscription when you initially sign up for the service. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Inflation Coming in Hot The war against inflation has not yet been won. The latest […]
View the video of this post here. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Longest Inversion in History The US Yield Curve (10-year minus 3-month) has now been inverted for 473 consecutive days, the longest inversion in history. Historically, this has been a leading indicator of an economic downturn, but with […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. If you missed my live show with them on the 4 Most Important Charts to Watch in 2024, view the replay here. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your YCharts subscription when you initially sign up for the service. The most important charts […]
View the video of this post here. If we can help guide you on your road to wealth, reach out. — The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) What Tends to Follow All-Time Highs? After a 38% rally off of the October 2022 low, the S&P 500 is back at an all-time high […]
View the video of this post here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. I’m doing a big live show with them this week on January 25 @ 2pm EST. We’re going to cover the 4 most important charts to watch in 2024 and what events would send shock waves across markets. Register here, open […]
View the video of this post here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ Here are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2023… I. The Wall of Worry The wall of worry was a mile […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Click here to view their Top 23 Charts from 2023. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your YCharts subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — Put these charts on your wall for reference the next time you think… They say […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ If we can help guide you on your road to wealth, reach out. __ 1) Is the Inflation Fight Over? That’s the big question for investors. And from the incoming inflation data (CPI/PPI/etc.) to the Fed pivot (projecting 3 rate cuts in 2024) to the equity market […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Click here to view their Top 23 Charts from 2023. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your YCharts subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ 1) The Jobs Streak Continues 199,000 US jobs were added in […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) A November to Remember In years to come, we’ll look back at November 2023 as one of the strongest months for financial markets in history: 2) Back From the Dead “Why the 60/40 portfolio might be […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Click here to download their top 10 visuals for client and prospect meetings. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Volatility […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ New Blog Post: The Best Time to Diversify __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Road to Lower Inflation The US continues down the road to lower inflation with a lot of good news in the latest CPI report. Overall […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Click here to download their top 10 visuals for client and prospect meetings. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Bouncing Back With a Vengeance The S&P 500 bounced back with a vengeance last week, rising nearly 6%. Two major catalysts: a) Extremely Bearish Sentiment. The percentage of bears in the AAII Sentiment Poll had risen […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. View my recent webinar with YCharts here: 10 Charts Every Investor Should Know. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ Note: view my recent webinar with YCharts here… 10 Charts Every Investor Should Know (video) __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The 8% Mortgage Rate is Here The 8% mortgage rate is back in the US for the first time […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ Note: I’m doing a big live webinar with YCharts this week (10/18 @ 2pm EST) on 10 Charts Every Investor Should Know. Register Here, open to all. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) How Long Will Inflation Remain Elevated? The […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ Note: register here for my upcoming live webinar with YCharts covering 10 important concepts that every investor should know (October 18 @ 2pm EST). __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Well, That Escalated Quickly Back in March 2020, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly moved […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Frozen Housing Market Pending home sales in the US have […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. Real wealth doesn’t come via a straight line path but instead a long and winding road. Join me and Peter Mallouk on a big webinar this week (9/26 @ 1pm EST) as we break down what it takes to be a successful long-term investor. Register HERE, open […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts, who just launched “Proposals,” their latest product enhancement that helps wealth managers craft captivating narratives and win new business. YCharts will be uncovering all of its features in an upcoming webinar on September 22. Register Here for the webinar […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Coming soon to YCharts: NEW Proposals Functionality that will allow wealth managers to craft compelling narratives that supercharge client communication and drive new business. Mention Charlie Bilello for a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Declining Purchasing Power The 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US has moved up to 7.23%, its highest level since 2001. Assuming a $3,000 monthly budget, a 2.65% mortgage rate in January 2021 could have […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Tis But a Scratch The S&P 500 has suffered its first […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Streak is Broken After a record 12 consecutive declines in the US inflation rate, we saw a small tick higher in July, with overall CPI moving up to 3.2% from 3.0% in June. Core […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The Rising Tide Lifted All Boats Through July, every major asset […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. — p.s. Could your money be working harder for you? Reach out today for a complimentary portfolio review. — The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) The 11th and Final Step? As widely expected, the Fed hiked rates for the 11th time last […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Exuberance in the Air The S&P 500 came within 2% of […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) What a Difference a Year Makes Only a year ago we had the highest inflation rate in the US since 1981: 9.1%. But since then, we’ve seen 12 consecutive declines in that inflation rate… […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. — I. The Recession That Never Came In December 2022, nearly everyone was in agreement: the U.S. economy was either already in a recession or headed for one in 2023. The list of indicators said to be predicting a recession was a long one, including a […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Check out their latest research on which Portfolios and Asset Classes have performed best during Fed Rate Hiking Cycles. Register here for my July webinar with YCharts covering the most important charts and themes in markets today. __ The most […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Just Like Nobody Predicted The S&P 500 is off to its best start to a year since 1997, up over 15%. Did the experts see this coming? Not exactly. Entering the year, Wall Street […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Here Come the Bulls It’s been a while, but the bulls […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) AI Mania The exuberance over generative artificial Intelligence had been building […]
Note: click here to view video on this post… The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Call It a Comeback What a comeback. The Nasdaq 100 is now up 33% from the October lows, at its highest level since April 2022. NVIDIA and Meta (Facebook) are leading all stocks in both […]
Note: click here for a replay of my recent webinar with YCharts covering the end of easy money, the most anticipated recession in history, investing resolutions for life, and much more! View latest “week in charts” video here… The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) Is This the End? As expected, the Fed […]
Note: register here for my upcoming webinar with YCharts covering the most anticipated recession in history, the end of easy money, investing resolutions for life, and much more! — The most important charts and themes in markets and investing… 1) First Republic Freefall First Republic Bank has been shut down by regulators, becoming the 2nd […]
__ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Houston, We Have a Problem The spread between 3-month (5.14%) and 1-month (3.36%) […]
Note: Join me for a big webinar next week on how to avoid one of the biggest mistakes an investor can make: Market Timing. Thursday April 20, 1pm EST. Register Here — — The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) On the Way Down […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Next Generation A […]
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Last Hike? As […]
Your home is your castle, and if you’re like most Americans, it is also the single largest component of your net worth. Naturally, you would love to see your home appreciate in value over time. But by how much – what’s a reasonable expectation? To answer that question, let’s take a look back at history… […]
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing. For the week in charts blog post with all the charts/data, click here. Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.
Note: view the video of this post on YouTube here. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) A Run on the Bank It’s […]
“What are the past returns?” That’s the first and often only question many ask before making an investment. Why? Because we’re wired to believe that those returns are indicative of what we’ll receive in the future. If an investment has gone up 25%, we expect another 25%. If an investment has doubled, we expect it […]
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing. For the week in charts blog post with all the charts/data, click here. Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.
Note: view the video of this post here. The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Taking Its Toll High inflation is taking its toll. With wages failing to keep pace with rising prices 22 months running, Americans are increasingly turning to credit to fill the gap. […]
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing. For the week in charts blog post with all the charts/data, click here. Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.
Note: view the video of this post here. The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Downward Inflation Trend Continues Overall US CPI moved down to 6.4% in January, the 7th consecutive decline in the YoY rate of inflation and the lowest level since October 2021. US […]
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing. For the week in charts blog post with all the charts/data, click here. Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.
“Higher risk, higher reward.” This is one of the most repeated maxims in investing, and the basis of Modern Portfolio Theory. It’s also intuitive: riskier investments should be compensated with a higher return. But what should happen and what actually happens is not always one in the same… It’s May 2006 and Gold is all […]
Note: view the video of this post here. The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) A Screeching Halt For years, the tech juggernauts consistently reported growth rates far in excess of the broad market, a persistent tailwind for share prices. Across the “Big 4” (Apple/Microsoft/Google/Amazon) […]
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing. For the week in charts blog post with all the charts/data, click here. Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.
Note: view the video of this post here. The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) A Good Start What a difference a year makes. In the first 21 trading days of 2022, the S&P 500 was down 5%, the worst start for the index since […]
This is a situation many of you will be familiar with. You have money to invest that’s been sitting in cash, either from the sale of a business, a recent inheritance, or built-up savings. This is money you don’t expect to need or access for more than 20 years, if ever. You know that cash […]
An analysis of the opportunity cost of cash, lump sum vs. dollar-cost averaging, and trying to time your exposure to the market… For the blog post on this topic with all the charts/data, click here. Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer […]
Note: view the video of this post here. The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Inflation is Slowing Fast The overall US inflation rate (YoY % Change) moved down in December for the 6th consecutive month. At 6.5%, this is the lowest inflation rate […]
The charts and themes that tell the story of 2022… For the blog post with all the charts/data, click here. Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.
Note: view the video of this post here. Here are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2022… I. Starting Off With a Bang The first day of trading in 2022 felt very much like 2021. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high and Apple hit yet another market cap milestone, becoming […]
Notes: -I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The charts and themes from the past week […]
Notes: -I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts is giving 100 of our readers free access to their Professional platform until December 16th. Sign up here. With YCharts you can conduct investment research, monitor the markets, […]
Notes: -I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts is giving 100 of our readers free access to their Professional platform until December 16th. Sign up here. With YCharts you can conduct investment research, […]
Notes: -I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The charts and themes from the past week […]
The S&P 500 is in the midst of its third bear market in the last four years. If this one feels different than the previous two, that’s because it’s lasted for more than the blink of an eye. At 9 months and counting from the all-time high reached back in January, this is now the […]
Notes: -I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ The charts and themes from the past week […]
Notes: -I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. -If you missed my recent webinar with YCharts, click here to view the replay. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when […]
For the first time in over a decade, the S&P 500 is down more than 20% from its prior high on a monthly closing basis (total returns including dividends). The current drawdown, at nine months and counting, is now the longest we’ve seen since the 2007-09 bear market. Volatility has been rising all year and […]
Notes: -I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. –Register here for my October 13th webinar (2pm EST) with YCharts covering the most important charts and themes in markets and investing. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free […]
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett “Greed, for lack of a better word, is good” – Gordon Gekko, Wall Street […]
What matters more: your savings rate or your investing return? Most would probably say the latter as that gets all the attention. We often hear discussions about how to earn higher returns but savings rates are rarely mentioned. In reality, though, saving is far more important for the majority of Americans. Why? Because most people […]
Notes: -I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. –Register here for my October webinar with YCharts covering the most important charts and themes in markets and investing. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. 10 charts and themes from the past week that tell […]
US Bonds are on pace for their worst year in history, down over 11% year-to-date. On a monthly basis, this is now the longest US bond market drawdown ever (25 months and counting) and the largest (-12.3%) since 1980. Why are bonds falling? Interest rates are rising at a rapid rate from historic lows, and […]
Inertia is a powerful force – and if you’re like most Americans – you’re still earning almost nothing on your cash because if it. According to Bankrate.com, the national average yield on a savings account is a paltry 0.13%. Many of the largest banks (Bank of America, Chase, HSBC, Wells Fargo, and Citibank) are offering even […]
In late August 1930, identical twins Warren and Wally were born in Omaha, Nebraska. They came from a long line of great investors and much was expected of them. While Warren seemed to inherit these genes, Wally wasn’t so lucky and had no investing acumen whatsoever. As teenagers, Warren and Wally were each given a […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Click here for the latest research from YCharts on whether […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 10 charts and themes from the past week that tell […]
Every week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Sign up here. 9 charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Betting the Under For the first time since early 2021, if you bet […]
Is the US economy in a recession? Everyone seems to be asking that question. Why? Likely because we just learned that real GDP contracted for the second straight quarter. And the last 10 times we’ve seen consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, the US was indeed in a recession. With data going back to 1947, […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 7 charts and themes from the past week that […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 9 charts and themes from the past week that […]
Notes: Every week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most important charts and themes in markets (Subscribe here). Click here for a video on this post. Put these charts on your wall for reference the next time you think… It’s “oversold” or “at support” and can’t possibly go any lower… […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. 10 charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Hello 9% The US Inflation Rate rose to 9.1% in June, its highest level since […]
Note: for my video on this post, click here. The first half of 2022 was one of the most painful periods in history for investors… The S&P 500 fell 20%, on pace for its largest annual decline since 2008 and 3rd largest ever (after 1931 and 2008). The 10-Year Treasury bond fell 11.5%, on pace […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 10 charts and themes from the past week that […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. 7 charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Unsustainable Levels The unaffordability of the US housing market has risen to unsustainable levels. […]
Notes: -My latest Week in Charts Video on YouTube. -My recent Webinar with YCharts. -My Conversation with Anthony Pompliano. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ 10 charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting […]
Stocks go up and stocks go down. Most of the time there’s nothing interesting or exceptional to say about it. But from time to time, notable extremes occur, both on the downside and the upside. The driving force? The most powerful human emotions: fear and greed. In the past few years we’ve seen both sides… […]
Notes: –Register here for my webinar with YCharts on June 14 (2pm EST). We’ll be discussing the history of bear markets, the lowest consumer sentiment in history, the only path to long-term prosperity, and much more. -I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. […]
After years of hard work, you’re ready to retire. You’ve been a disciplined saver and investor, building up a sizable nest egg that should allow you to maintain your current lifestyle throughout your golden years. Your biggest fear? A devastating bear market that would significantly reduce the value of your portfolio and put you at […]
Note: Register here for my next markets webinar with YCharts on June 14 (2pm EST). Will be discussing the history of bear markets, the odds of a recession, whether the inflation rate has peaked, and much more. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 10 charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting […]
It’s official: the Bear Market of 2022. The S&P 500 has now fallen 20.9% from its high in early January, the largest decline for the index since March 2020. The question everyone’s asking: what happens next? To answer that, we often look back at history, attempting to find parallels with the past. But even a […]
“Hence the prices of common stocks are not carefully thought out computations, but the resultants of a welter of human reactions. The stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine. It responds to factual data not directly, but only as they affect the decisions of buyers and sellers.” – Graham and Dodd, Security Analysis […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. 10 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Has the Inflation Rate Peaked? I asked this question on Twitter this week with 55% […]
The market has gone up over time. But not all the time; far from it. And therein lies the challenge, for you can’t have one (long-term gain) without the other (short-term pain). Since 1990, the S&P 500 has returned an impressive 10% per year. And it’s done so despite two 50+% bear markets and being […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 9 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Two Steps Forward, One Step Back That’s the path all investors must take, as there is no upside without intermittent […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 9 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Hard Times The S&P 500 declined 13.3% in the first 82 trading days of 2022, the worst start to a […]
I Don’t Know Three words that are rarely heard in the investment business and at the same time the most important to long-term success. Why? Because the future is unknown and having the humility to admit that is very hard for us to do. We’re wired instead with overconfidence – we tend to overestimate our […]
Notes: –Click Here for a replay of my recent webinar with YCharts covering Fed Policy, Equity Valuations, the Worst Year for Bonds in History, and much more. -I have a new video channel on YouTube where I’ll be sharing my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. -Join thousands of other investors […]
Cash is king. At least for the moment. In the first quarter of 2022, short-term Treasury bills finished marginally higher (+0.03%) while both the 10-Year Treasury bond (-6.64%) and the S&P 500 (-4.95%) declined. The greatest fear among many investors is that this trend will continue. Is this a rational fear? How often has cash […]
The US Unemployment Rate moved down to 3.6% in March, its lowest level since the start of the pandemic and well below the historical average of 5.75%. If you asked most people, they would probably say this is a bullish sign, where a strong economy is good news for the stock market. But is this […]
There are few things investors fear more than an inverted yield curve (the relatively uncommon situation where short-term yields are higher than longer-term yields). Why? Because it tends to be a pretty good indicator of future economic weakness. Case in point: the last 6 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inverted curve. […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Inflationary Spiral Continues The US Inflation Rate rose to 8.5% in March, its highest level since December 1981. The […]
7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Greatest Jobs Comeback in History During the pandemic shutdowns in March and April of 2020, 22 million jobs were lost in the United States. Since then, 20.4 million have been added back. In the next few months, we […]
The markets are volatile, the news is bad, and the value of your portfolio is going down. You’re afraid things may get worse and you want to do something about it. This is a perfectly normal reaction. When faced with something painful, we look for ways to ease the pain. While such a response serves […]
Note: I have a new video channel on YouTube where I’ll be sharing my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the video accompanying this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story […]
Note: I have a new video channel on YouTube where I’ll be sharing my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the video accompanying this post here. ___ 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Historic Rally The S&P 500 was up more than 1% in each […]
Note: I have a new video channel on YouTube where I’ll be sharing my latest thoughts on markets and investing. Check out the video accompanying this post here. ___ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. ___ 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story […]
Note: I have a new video channel on YouTube where I’ll be sharing my latest thoughts on markets and investing. Check out the video accompanying this post here. ___ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. ___ 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. ___ 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Wars and Fat Tails Financial markets do not follow a bell curve. Instead, they operate in the world of fat […]
Note: I have a new video channel on YouTube where I’ll be sharing my latest thoughts on markets and investing. Check out the most recent video on the upcoming Fed rate hike here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. ___ 6 charts from the past […]
Note: I have a new video channel on YouTube where I’ll be sharing my thoughts on markets and investing. You can watch the video accompanying this post here. ___ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. ___ 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting […]
Note: view my video on this topic here. Stocks are down and the Fed is expected to hike rates for the first time in years. Many are worried that we are heading straight for a bear market. Which begs the following question: has there ever been a 20% stock market decline in advance of or […]
Note: watch a view a video of this post here. These are the top 30 stocks in the S&P 500 over the past 30 years… What stands out? The unfathomable cumulative returns, a product of time and the magic of compounding. What’s missing? The many periods of excruciating pain that anyone invested in these companies would have […]
Note: I have a new video channel on YouTube where I’ll be sharing my thoughts on markets and investing. Check out the first video here and the video accompanying this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. ___ 7 charts from the […]
Click Here for a replay of my recent webinar on the free money effect, the high growth crash, and the beginning of the end of easy money. ___ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. ___ 7 charts from the past week that […]
“Whether you’re excited or nervous when your favorite asset falls in price marks whether you’re investing or merely speculating.” – Naval Ravikant (Founder of AngelList) Are you investing or merely speculating? Naval Ravikant had an interesting take on this most important of questions. The deciding factor: whether you’re “excited” or “nervous” to see your investment going […]
NOTE: Register Here for our upcoming webinar (January 26) on the high growth crash, the end of easy money, and the changing market environment in 2022. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. — 7 charts from the […]
Register Here for our upcoming webinar covering the most important charts and themes from 2021 and the changing market environment in 2022. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell […]
Sign up here for our weekly newsletter. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) First to $3 Trillion The new year started […]
Here are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2021… I. The Free Money Effect In the first few months of 2021, hundreds of millions of Americans (the vast majority of whom had never lost a job during the pandemic) received two more tax-free stimulus checks, setting the stage for one of the […]
US National Debt has crossed above $29 trillion for the first time, increasing $6 trillion over the last two years. As a percentage of economic output (GDP), our national debt has steadily increased over the past 40 years from 31% in 1980 to 126% today… Why is the ratio going up? Simply put: we have […]
If you’re going to bet against Warren Buffett, you better have the odds tilted in your favor. Back in January 2008, Buffett wagered $318,250 that an S&P 500 index fund would beat a hedge fund portfolio (five fund-of-funds chosen by Protégé Partners which invested in over 200 hedge funds) over the next ten years. The […]
Sign up here for our weekly newsletter. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Hello $29 Trillion The US National Debt […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Beginning of the End of Easy Money The FOMC meeting this week went […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Behind the Curve The US Inflation rate moved up to 6.8% in November, its […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Jobs Comeback Continues 22.4 million jobs were lost in March and April of 2020 […]
“As Ben Graham said: ‘In the short-run, the market is a voting machine – reflecting a voter-registration test that requires only money, not intelligence or emotional stability – but in the long-run, the market is a weighing machine.’” – Warren Buffett (1993 Berkshire Hathaway Letter) Over the last year we’ve seen a rolling series of […]
If you missed our November markets webinar, click here for the replay. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Volatility Returns The […]
US equity valuations are high. How high? The CAPE Ratio on the S&P 500 just crossed above 40. When was last time we saw a CAPE ratio above 40? September 2000. What happened after that? The “lost decade” for investors. The S&P 500 declined 15% over the next 10 years, with two significant drawdowns in […]
Bezos. Gates. Buffett. Zuckerberg. Musk. A list of the wealthiest Americans all have one thing in common: concentrated positions in a single company’s stock that they founded. It’s tempting to believe that is the model you should follow in your own investment portfolio, but for most, that would be a mistake. Why? Because the odds […]
Webinar Replay: If you missed this week’s markets webinar, click here for the replay. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) […]
Rivian ($RIVN) went public last week in one of the largest IPOs ever, raising $12 billion and ending its first day of trading at a market cap of $87 billion. Only a week later, its market cap has surged to $149 billion, higher than both General Motors ($GM) and Ford ($F). Why is that surprising? […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength is at new highs. The S&P 500 has gained 27% in 2021 versus 10% for the world ex US ($ACWX). b) US vs. Emerging Markets […]
US economic growth contracted 2.3% in 2020, the worst year for the economy since 2008. Did that hurt the stock market? Not at all. The S&P 500 gained 18%, well above its historical average return of 10%. 2020 wasn’t the first time we’ve seen a higher stock market in spite of an economic downturn. The […]
Webinar Sign Up: –Click here to register for our November Charts Webinar (11/18 @ 2pm EST) This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and […]
What do Amazon, Walmart, Costco, Bank of America, McDonald’s, and Starbucks have in common? They’re all among the largest US employers and they’ve all raised wages in the last year. Overall, average hourly earnings in the U.S. are up 4.9% in the last 12 months and 9.6% over the last 24 months. This is significantly […]
It’s that time of year again. Endless predictions and price targets about where the markets are headed in 2022: -The S&P 500 is going to ___. -The 10-year treasury yield is going to ___. -Crude Oil is going to ___. -Bitcoin is going to ___. There’s a huge audience for this type of content, but […]
Notes: –Click here for a replay of our October Webinar –Click here to register for our November Webinar — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength is at new highs. The S&P 500 has gained 25% in 2021 versus 9% for the world ex US ($ACWX). b) US vs. Emerging Markets […]
There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. All that has changed. Since June 2009, there have been 98 FOMC Meetings… Before 86 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]
Note: Click here for a replay of this week’s webinar on Markets and Investing. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… […]
Click here to register for our October Charts Webinar (10/26) — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) New Bitcoin Highs […]
“The Market is always right.” One of the most popular sayings which can also be one of the most dangerous. Why? Because “the market” can be very wrong at the worst possible time. A few examples… 1) Silver in 1980 The price of Silver went up over 10x in the year leading up to its […]
During the covid crash last year we saw central banks around the world ease policy like never before. Rate cuts, asset purchases, and more – everything was on the table. By the end of 2020, this is what a chart of central bank interest rates and inflation looked like… And this what it looks like […]
Click here to register for our October Webinar (10/26) — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Transitory Persistent Inflation The […]
7.5%. That’s been the annual return assumption of pension funds for decades. What mix of assets is required to generate such a return? The answer to that question has changed dramatically over the past 40 years. Let’s take a closer look… January 1981 In 1981, short-term Treasury bills were yielding over 15%, near their highest […]
Pretend for a moment that you’ve been stranded on a desert island and have no idea where Fed policy stands. After being recued, you’re given the following the information… US Real GDP is at its highest level ever, up 12% over the last year and on pace for its highest annual growth rate since the […]
Click Here for the Replay of September’s Webinar — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Back to Work The Unemployment […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength hit a new high in August, continuing the decade-long run of US outperformance. The S&P 500 has gained 17% in 2021 versus 5% for the […]
Click Here for a Replay of Last Week’s Webinar — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) 0% Rates Make 0 […]
Sign up for our September Charts webinar (on 9/29) here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Ever Heard of Evergrande? Before this […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength hit a new high in August, continuing the decade-long run of US outperformance. In the past month we’ve seen a slight pullback as international stocks […]
There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 97 FOMC Meetings… Before 85 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]
“Buy the dip.” This has been the mantra for an entire generation of investors. Why? Because we are creatures of habit, and during the last 12 years the best habit you could possibly have had as an investor was to stop worrying and simply “buy the dip.” The fact that dips were often followed in […]
Sign up for next webinar (on 9/29) here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Inflation Everywhere You Look The transitory […]
This is a story about expectations. But first, I want you to read about Company A and Company B… Company A had revenues of $66.81 billion over the last year and net income of $7.14 billion. It was founded in 1912 and has 114,000 employees. Company B had revenues of $851 million over the last […]
By changing the start and end date, you can win just about any argument over what’s the best investment. Even the age-old battle between Gold bugs and stock market bulls? Yes, even that one. Here’s a guide to winning the argument, first in favor of Gold and then in favor of Stocks… If you’re a […]
Investing is never easy, but there’s no denying that the last 10 years in U.S. equities have been a far smoother ride than most of history. How do we define “smoother”? In layman’s terms: higher returns with lower risk. In technical terms, we can look at things like the Sharpe Ratio, which measures risk-adjusted performance. […]
Sign up for our weekly newsletter here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Solana Surge Solana’s market cap hit $63 billion […]
Put these charts on your wall for reference the next time you think… All-time highs are a reason to sell… It’s “oversold” or “at support” and has to go back up… It’s “overbought” or “at resistance” and can‘t possibly go higher… Investors are rational and would never buy stock in the wrong company because of a tweet… A meme can’t lead […]
There are two types of investors: Pundits and Professionals… <> The Pundit thinks they know everything. The Professional knows that learning is infinite. <> The Pundit makes subjective predictions. The Professional makes objective assessments. <> The Pundit seeks self-promotion. The Professional seeks self-improvement. <> The Pundit exudes hubris. The Professional exudes humility. <> The Pundit […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength hit a new high in August, continuing the decade-long run of US outperformance. In the past few weeks we’ve seen a slight pullback as international […]
Sign up for our weekly newsletter here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Jobs Recovery Continues The US Unemployment […]
A 17,320% gain in 11.5 years. That’s what happens when you combine 3 turns of leverage with the greatest uptrend in history, the incredible move higher in the Nasdaq 100. The 3x Long Nasdaq 100 ETF ($TQQQ) was launched in February 2010. Since then it has advanced 17,320% (56% annualized) versus a gain of 890% […]
Click Here for a replay of this week’s webinar discussing 5 Important Themes in Markets Today. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets […]
Sign up here for our August 24 webinar on the most interesting charts/themes in markets. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) […]
Sign up here for our August 24 webinar on the most interesting charts/themes in markets. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Jobs Jump The US Unemployment Rate moved down to 5.4% in July, its lowest […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter. The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength hit a new high in July, continuing the decade-long run of US outperformance. b) US vs. Emerging Markets ($SPY/$IEMG) Weakness out of China has led […]
Click here for a replay of this week’s webinar discussing the most important charts and themes thus far in 2021. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting […]
As children we’re taught that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line. Many expect investing to be the same, with high and consistent returns bringing you from point A (starting out) to point B (wealth). But markets don’t operate in the same realm as the physical world. There is no straight line […]
“But valuation doesn’t matter anymore.” You’ve probably heard that statement in some form or fashion over the last year as we’ve witnessed a rolling series of manias in markets like never before. And indeed it is true – at least in the moment. During a parabolic advance, sentiment and herd behavior easily trump valuation and […]
There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 96 FOMC Meetings… Before 84 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]
Register here for our Webinar on July 27th discussing the most important charts and themes thus far in 2021 (a replay will be sent to those who register). — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter. The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) A new high in US equity relative strength was reached this week. Over the last 10 years, US stocks are up 297% versus a gain of only 69% for […]
Register here for our Webinar on July 27th discussing the most important charts and themes thus far in 2021 (a replay will be sent to those that register). — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 […]
Here are the charts and themes that tell the story of the first six months of 2021… I. The Beginning of the End of Covid-19 The scourge known as Covid-19 started the year at its most prevalent level to date. But the bad news wouldn’t last long. Things were about to change, and change for […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Big Trouble, Big China Chinese internet stocks (ETF: $KWEB) hit a 52-week low this […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The $1 Trillion Club Facebook ($FB) became the 5th US Company to cross the […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter. The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) More than a decade long streak of US equity outperformance peaked last September. Since then US relative strength has gone sideways… b) Emerging Markets vs. US ($IEMG/$SPY) Emerging Markets […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Waiting for “Actual” Inflation Fed Chairman Jerome Powell boosted markets this week in saying […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) In Search of Greener Pastures The percentage of workers in the US that are […]
There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 95 FOMC Meetings… Before 83 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]
6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Consumer Prices Surge US consumer prices rose 5% over the last year, the highest increase since 2008. Core prices (excluding food/energy) rose 3.8%, the fastest pace since 1992. The US is not alone in seeing rising prices, though its […]
Here’s a list of the top 30 stocks in the S&P 500 over the past 30 years… What stands out? The unfathomable returns, a product of time and the magic of compounding. What’s lost in this graphic, however, are the many periods of excruciating pain that anyone invested in these companies would have experienced. When […]
What are high yield bonds? I don’t mean the textbook definition (corporate bonds with a credit rating below BBB), but how they actually behave in terms of risk and return. To explore this, let’s address some common questions surrounding the asset class also known as “junk bonds”… Question #1: Do High Yield Bonds Act More […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) More than a decade long streak of US equity outperformance peaked last September. Since then US relative strength has gone sideways… b) Emerging Markets vs. US ($IEMG/$SPY) Emerging Markets […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Jobs Comeback The US Unemployment rate moved down to 5.8% in May, its […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The $100 Million Deli? Shares of Hometown International – a New Jersey Deli with a single location – hit a market cap of $113 million earlier this year and are still trading at $94 million today. Its latest financials: […]
You’ve heard the story before: Equity valuations are high… Interest rates are low…. Therefore, high valuations are “justified” by lower interest rates. Why? Some say it’s because stocks are simply the present value of their future cash flows. And lower interest rates (r) in the denominator of that equation should result in a higher present value, and […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming over the last 3 months after a relative decline from last September through mid-January. b) Emerging Markets vs. US ($IEMG/$SPY) Emerging Markets have been […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) $3 Gas Gasoline prices in the US are back above $3 per gallon, at […]
For 40 years (1980-2019), bond investors in the US earned a rate of return that outpaced inflation, and often by a wide margin: In the 1980s, 10-year yields moved from 10.4% down to 7.8%, and bond investors earned an annualized real return of 6.6%. In the 1990s, 10-year yields moved from 7.8% down to 6.3%, […]
7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Now Hiring There have never been more Job Openings in the US than there are today: 8.1 million. With 9.8 million people still unemployed, there is a big debate going on over whether the additional Federal unemployment benefits of […]
Core inflation in the US has moved up to 3%, its highest level in 25 years (note: core inflation excludes food/energy). At 4.2%, overall inflation is running at its highest level since 2008. The prices of imports and exports are surging… The price of Copper, one of the most important industrial metals, is now at […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming over the last 3 months after a relative decline from last September through mid-January. The new narrative: trillions in new economic stimulus is said […]
Valuations in the US are high, exceeding all prior periods in history with the exception of the dot-com bubble (March 1998 to December 2000).1 The long-run implications of higher valuations? Lower future returns and higher volatility/drawdowns, on average (see recent post). The natural question that follows: what, if anything, can an investor do about this? […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Crocs Comeback One of the great comebacks in stock market history: Crocs is back […]
Over the past few months, we’ve made considerable progress in defeating covid-19… 45% of Americans (148 million people) are now vaccinated with at least 1 dose. In the most vulnerable age group (65+, which has seen >80% of covid-19 deaths), we’re at 85%. If we add in those who have been infected with covid-19 (but […]
US inflation expectations continue to rise, now at their highest levels since 2008. If higher inflation is coming (see here for some signs), many investors are wondering how that will impact their portfolio. Let’s take a look at how stocks and bonds have performed historically under various levels of inflation… If we segment calendar year […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our newsletter. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Stimulus Effect US personal incomes were 29% higher in March 2021 than a year ago, the highest rate of increase ever recorded. 2) The V in Earnings […]
There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 94 FOMC Meetings… Before 82 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Housing Boom 2.0 The US Housing Boom continues with New Home Sales surging to […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… — The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming over the last 3 months after a relative decline from last September through mid-January. The new narrative: trillions in new economic stimulus is […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… 96.8% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average. This is the highest percentage ever. When this many stocks are participating in a rising market, many consider it a sign of strength (“good breadth”) and a bullish indicator for […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our newsletter. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) A Rising Tide… …lifts all boats. 96.4% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average, the highest % ever. 2) The Free Money Effect […]
There is one definition of inflation that seems most applicable to today… “Too much money chasing too few goods.” We are seeing the impact of trillions of dollars in stimulus money chasing a limited supply of goods almost everywhere you look… Financial Asset Price Inflation -Stock prices are at record highs, up 50-80% in the […]
“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.” – Warren Buffett With all due respect to Warren Buffett, the most important rule in investing is not anything close to “never lose money.” In fact, the entire notion is absurd. Anyone who has ever invested in the history of the […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) All is Calm Again The $VIX has finally moved back to pre-pandemic levels, down […]
US manufacturing is booming. In a report released last week, the ISM Manufacturing Index moved up to 64.7, its highest level since 1983. Many are saying that’s great news for the stock market because higher manufacturing activity is evidence of a stronger economy. This seems logical but does the data support such a conclusion? And […]
Click Here for a replay of the Webinar I did with YCharts this week. We discussed 6 Long-Term Market Trends that have been showing signs of reversing. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Jobs Recovery Continues As the US reopening continues, jobs are coming back. […]
Register here for our Webinar on April 1st discussing 6 Long-Term Market Trends that have been showing signs of reversing (replay will be sent to those that register). Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks […]
Momentum and Mean Reversion. The two most powerful forces in markets. Momentum dictates that what has done the best in the past will continue to do the best and Mean Reversion just the opposite – where what is done the worst will eventually do the best, reverting back to its mean. That both can be […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. __ Register here for our Webinar on April 1st discussing 6 Long-Term Market Trends that have been showing signs of reversing (replay will be sent to those that register). 5 […]
Gold has been having a tough time of late, down 20% from its high last August. With government debt going through the roof and the Fed maintaining the easiest monetary policy in history, many investors are confused by the move lower. This was supposed to be the perfect environment for Gold. So why is it […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Higher Growth + Higher Inflation = Easy Money? The Federal Reserve updated their projections at this week’s FOMC meeting with a substantial move higher in anticipated real […]
What a difference a year makes. On March 16, 2020, I wrote the following in a post entitled “When All News is Bad News”… “The Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the “fear index,” ended today at 82.69. Since its inception in 1990 it has never had a higher close… When all news is bad […]
There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 93 FOMC Meetings… Before 81 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]
Back in January, I outlined 6 secular investing trends that were showing signs of a major reversal… Long Duration over Short Duration and Flattening Yield Curve. Large Caps over Small Caps. Stocks over Commodities. US over International. Growth over Value. Tech over Everything. Since then, the reversal of these major trends have continued, and in […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. __ 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Stimmy, Stimmy, Stimmy The 3rd round of stimulus checks are on their way, […]
If market participants are correct, higher prices are coming, with inflation expectations surging to their highest levels in over 12 years.1 When most investors read the word “inflation” they immediately think of Gold, as conventional wisdom states that there is no better hedge against rising prices. Is this true? Let’s take a look… Since 1975 […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. The Price of Admission The S&P 500 fell 5.7% from its high in mid February to its low this week, its first correction since last September. This […]
Years from now, we’ll look back and say it was obvious. That the signs of a historic mania were clear as day, with a billion a day in SPACs being the most prominent. You read that correctly: $1 billion per day has been raised in the SPAC IPO market this year, an astounding figure. At […]
US National Debt has crossed above $28 trillion for the first time, increasing $4.6 trillion over the last year. As a percentage of economic output (GDP), our national debt has never been higher, steadily increasing over the past 40 years from 31% in 1980 to 130% today… Why is the ratio going up? Simply put: […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks had been outperforming international equities for over 10 years before hitting a relative peak last September. Since then, we’ve seen international outperformance but the ratio has gone […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. __ 1) A Billion a Day The boom in SPACs continues with over a billion a day in new issuance in the first two months of the year. At this […]
When investors think about investing in bonds, losing money probably isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. Bonds tend to be synonymous with safety, clipping your coupon and allowing you to sleep well at night. While this is often the case, often is not always. We’re seeing that so far this year with the […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming international equities for over 10 years. Last September, this ratio peaked and we’ve seen international outperformance since… b) Emerging Markets vs. US ($IEMG/$SPY) US […]
Last month I outlined the data pointing to the beginning of the end of covid-19. Since then, I’m happy to report that some incredible progress has been made… Covid-19 hospitalizations in the US have declined 40 days in a row, down over 57% from their peak on January 6. At 56,159, hospitalizations are now back […]
6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. Dr. Copper’s Comeback Copper closed at its highest level in over 9 years, more than doubling from its low last March. The signs of rising inflation can found almost everywhere. Freeport-McMoRan ($FCX), a leading producer of Copper, continues to […]
Over the past 40 years, bond yields have largely moved in one direction: down. The 10-Year Treasury went from a yield of 15.84% in 1981 to an all-time closing low of 0.52% in 2020. This has been a blessing for bond investors as prices move inversely to yields. And over the last 2 years, as […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming international equities for over 10 years. In early September, this ratio peaked and started trending lower… b) Emerging Markets vs. US ($IEMG/$SPY) US Stocks […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. __ 1) No Inflation? The US Federal Reserve says there’s “no inflation,” pointing to metrics like the CPI (consumer price index) which is up only 1.4% in the past year. […]
No one likes losing money, but hearing about others getting rich in an investment you have no exposure to is simply unbearable, making the fear of missing out (fomo) more painful for many than anything else. This is a fear that builds and builds until the un-invested can’t stand it any longer, jumping in and […]
The CAPE Ratio just crossed above 39.1 In layman’s terms, what exactly does that mean? Equity valuations in the US are quite high. How high? Going back to 1871, the only periods in history with a CAPE above 39 are as follows… September 1929 March 1998 to January 2001 Today In September 1929, the CAPE […]
1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming international equities for over 10 years. In early September, this ratio peaked and started trending lower… b) US vs. Emerging Markets ($SPY/$VWO) US Stocks have outperformed Emerging Markets for many years, with the ratio peaking last May. Since then EM has taken a leadership […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Game Over All games eventually come to an end, and this one was no different. The mania that swept the nation last week ended as many had feared, with GameStop down 89% from its high last week. The progression […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. — 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. How the Stock Market Became a Video Game This week was one for […]
Years from now we’ll look back at today as the day the stock market became a video game, replete with a cast of characters and a storyline to compete with the best of them. To be sure, it didn’t happen overnight. It’s been slowly building towards gamification since the start of the pandemic. Stuck at […]
There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 92 FOMC Meetings… Before 80 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]
1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming international equities for over 10 years. In early September, this ratio peaked and started trending lower… b) US vs. Emerging Markets ($SPY/$VWO) US Stocks outperformed Emerging Markets for years, with the ratio peaking last May. Since then EM has taken a leadership role hit […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Netflix Numbers Netflix reported earnings this week and surpassed expectations once again. Global subscribers moved above 200 million for the first time, increasing 22% in 2020 (up from 20% in 2019 and 18% in 2018). Netflix original series continue […]
The most significant investing trends over the last 10 years can be summarized as follows… Large Caps over Small Caps. US over International. Growth over Value. Tech over Everything. Long Duration over Short Duration (Yields Falling, Curve Flattening). Stocks over Commodities. When Covid-19 first hit the US last February and March, all of these pre-existing […]
This week’s 5-Chart Friday is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. — 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) A Clear Signal of Insanity Last Thursday morning, Elon Musk sent out […]
The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming international equities for over 10 years. In early September, this ratio peaked and started trending lower and last week it hit a 9-month low… b) US vs. Emerging Markets ($SPY/$VWO) US Stocks outperformed Emerging Markets until […]
Every bull market has a company that captures the hearts and minds of its investors. Today that company – more than any other – is Tesla. At a market cap of $834 billion, it recently surpassed Facebook to become the 5th largest company in the US. A year ago it had a market cap of […]
There’s been a lot of crazy things going on in markets lately, but this one may top them all. Last Thursday morning, Elon Musk sent out this tweet to his 41 million followers… What’s Signal? It’s a messaging app for your phone and an alternative to WhatsApp, which has been criticized recently for privacy concerns […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) New Member of the Fab 5 Tesla’s market cap passed Facebook this week to become the 5th largest company in the US (trailing only Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google). Its market cap now stands at $773 billion, up from […]
The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming international equities for over 10 years. In early September, this ratio peaked and started trending lower and this week it hit a 9-month low… b) US vs. Emerging Markets ($SPY/$VWO) US Stocks outperformed Emerging Markets until […]
Here are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2020… I. The World Before Covid It’s hard to remember, but there was a time when where no one was talking about Covid-19. 2020 started off the same way 2019 ended: with record highs across the board. The only nagging concern was the ongoing […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. — 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) 12 in a Row… The Nasdaq 100 was up 49% in 2020, its […]
The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming international equities for over 10 years. In early September this ratio peaked and started trending lower… b) US vs. Emerging Markets ($SPY/$VWO) US Stocks outperformed Emerging Markets until the end of May after which EM […]
6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) A Billboard for Bitcoin Congress had 9 months to figure out the finer details of the second stimulus bill. So in typical fashion, they rushed a $900 billion bill to the floor last week that was nearly 6,000 pages […]
This week’s 5-Chart Friday is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. — 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Asset Class Returns over the Last 10 Years These are the returns from […]
These are the returns from major asset classes over the last 10 years… What stands out? A few things: 1) Bitcoin, with an annualized return of over 200%, is in a different stratosphere. Bitcoin was trading at just 30 cents 10 years ago. Few had ever heard of it and fewer still owned it. This […]
There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 91 FOMC Meetings… Before 79 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]
Over the last 20 years, long-term bonds have outperformed stocks (350% vs. 284%). Needless to say, this outcome will come as a surprise to many… (Note: in this post I’m using the S&P 500 Index Fund (VFINX) as the proxy for “stocks” and the Vanguard Long-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund (VWESX) as the proxy for […]
The S&P 500’s P/E ratio has moved from 20.6 at the start of 2020 to 30.3 today, on pace for the highest year-end multiple in history. How is this possible in a year with a global pandemic and the largest economic contraction since the Great Depression? Investors are anticipating much brighter days ahead, with the […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Dashing to 100x The DoorDash ($DASH) IPO this week did not disappoint, propelling the company to a market cap of more than $60 billion. That’s over 100x higher than its private market valuation back in 2015… Few companies have […]
Snowflake’s price to sales ratio just hit 245 (using TTM sales of $490 million). With a current market cap of $120 billion, this begs the question: has there ever been a company in history as large as Snowflake with a higher valuation? I don’t believe so. Back in the dot-com mania, Cisco briefly hit a […]
2020 has become a boom year for IPOs, and it’s not over yet. In the next few weeks Airbnb (ABNB), Doordash (DASH), Wish (WISH), and Roblox (RBLX) are all expected to go public. In November, we saw the highest number of new IPO filings in the last 20 years. Why are companies rushing to cash […]
This week’s 5-Chart Friday is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. — 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Top 30 Stocks Over the Last 30 […]
Here are the top 30 stocks in the S&P 500 over the past 30 years… These companies have delivered unfathomable returns to their shareholders. They have also delivered many periods of excruciating pain for anyone able to stick with them. When thinking about big winners in the stock market, excruciating pain probably isn’t the first […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Dow 30,000 The Dow crossed above 30,000 this week for the first time. A look back at other 1,000 point milestones through the years… 2. Airline Travel Slowly Coming Back Last Sunday (11/22) we saw more than 1 million […]
On March 16, the Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 82.69, a record high. All of the news that day was bad news and it seemed like that would never end. I wrote a post at the time… “When all news is bad news it can seem as if it will be that way forever. But […]
If you’re around markets long enough, you’re bound to see some crazy things. Manias. Crashes. Negative interest rates. Negative crude oil. The list goes on and on. But what we saw this week in something called the Litecoin Investment Trust ($LTCN) just may be the craziest thing you will ever see. The trust closed on […]
Studying market history is a worthy endeavor for investors. It can provide instructive parallels, much needed context, and reassurance during difficult times that “this too shall pass.” Problems arise, however, when one assumes that the range of possible outcomes in the future are limited to what has happened in the past. There is no better […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Vaccine Déjà Vu For the second week in a row, amazing vaccine news came at the start of the week, this time from Moderna (phase 3 trial showing its vaccine reduced risk of infection by 94.5%). Moderna’s stock ($MRNA) […]
The is a story about belief. But first, let’s do a little time traveling… 1) It’s July 2010. Bitcoin is trading at 5 cents. What’s a Bitcoin? 2) It’s February 2011. Bitcoin is trading at $1.10, a 2,100% increase in 7 months. This is what the chart looks like… What’s the first word that comes […]
In December 2008, as the “world was ending,” US junk bonds hit a record high yield of 23.26%. Forecasts of financial Armageddon were widespread, and few could envision a scenario in which subordinated bondholders would receive anything but pain. Note: throughout this post, we use the ICE BofA US High Yield Index as the high […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Vaccine Reversal The big news this week came early on Monday with reports of 90% effectiveness in Pfizer’s covid-19 vaccine. The initial reaction was a massive reversal in the “covid trade” with companies hurt most by the virus rallying […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Call It a Comeback 661,000 jobs were added back in October, building on the gains from May through September. In February and March, 22.1 million jobs were lost and since then 12 million have been added back. This means […]
It’s election night and many are worried about the future. Only adding to anxieties is the fact that both sides have painted a bleak picture of what America will look like if the other wins. I’m here to tell you they’re wrong. Life will go on, and things will get better. The election that seems […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Rising Volatility The Volatility Index ($VIX) hit 40 this week for the first time since June. The S&P 500 fell over 5% on the week, its largest weekly decline since March. What’s driving the recent increase in fear? Take […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Bonds Breaking Down? Long-term bond yields are creeping up, with 30-year treasuries at their highest levels since June. Why are yields rising? The combination of rising inflation expectations, a recovering economy, and the prospect of trillions more in debt to […]
It has become commonplace to compare covid-19 outcomes in one country to another. By now you’re all familiar with the arguments… “Country A did better. Country B did worse. Country A and their leaders should be praised; Country B and their leaders should be condemned.” Lost in these simplistic conclusions are the many important factors […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) If You Give It, They Will Spend It The boom in Retail Sales continues with new all-time highs and a September surge. The lesson: if you give the American consumer free money, they will spend it. The recessions of yesteryear […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) $27 Trillion and Counting… US National Debt has crossed above $27 trillion for the first time. A year ago it was below $23 trillion. As a percentage of economic output (GDP), our national debt has never been higher, steadily […]
US National Debt has crossed above $27 trillion for the first time. A year ago it was below $23 trillion. As a percentage of economic output (GDP), our national debt has never been higher, steadily increasing over the past 40 years… 1980: 31% 1990: 52% 2000: 58% 2010: 87% Today: 138% Why is the ratio […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) US Jobs Comeback Continues, Slowly 661,000 jobs were added back in September, building on the gains from May through August. This was the smallest rate of change since February, but still a very large move in any historical context. […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Other Side of Mania What follows a mania? Investors in Nikola are slowly finding out, with the stock now down 83% from its high in June. 2) Nothing Easy About Investing Remdesivir has been widely regarded as one […]
Over the past 40 years, there has been a one-way trend in US Treasury Bond Yields: down. US 10-Year Treasury Yield…September 1980: 11.6%September 1985: 10.4%September 1990: 8.9%September 1995: 6.2%September 2000: 5.9%September 2005: 4.3%September 2010: 2.8%September 2015: 2.2%September 2020: 0.7% — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 18, 2020 If you’re a bond investor, that has been a […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Snowflakes and Bubbles Snowflake ($SNOW) went public this week as the largest software IPO ever. On its first day of trading it reached a market cap high of over $88 billion, trading at an astounding 219x sales. In a […]
“Ask no questions, and you’ll be told no lies.” – Charles Dickens, Great Expectations What returns are you expecting from equities going forward? “At least 20% a year.” That was a conversation I had last week with an investor. It gives you an idea where we are in terms of sentiment. How did they arrive […]
Snowflake went public today. Who? Snowflake, a cloud-based data storage and analytics company. You had me at “cloud.” What’s the ticker? $SNOW. Awesome, catchy and easy to remember. Are they profitable? No. They lost $349 million in the fiscal year ending in January and $171 million in the first six months of this year. Even […]
Peloton reported earnings this week and in after hours trading its market cap moved above $26 billion, nearly as high as Ford. A year ago Peloton went public with a market cap of $7 billion. After posting this chart on twitter, the responses can be summarized as follows: “Ad hominen insult. Ford is going to […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) End of a Trend? The Nasdaq 100 ETF closed below its 50-day moving average today for the first time since April, ending one of the longest runs ever. It is now down over 10% from its recent high, marking […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) From Fear to Greed From extreme Fear in March to extreme Greed today. The equity put/call ratio (a ratio of bearish option bets to bullish option bets) has never been lower… We haven’t seen a mania like this since […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) How Do You Like Them Apples? Apple is now a $2 trillion company, adding $1 trillion to its market cap over the last year. $AAPL How big is $2 trillion? Who will be the first to $3 trillion? The […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Rising … Inflation? Deflation has been the buzzword nearly all year, particularly from the Fed in justifying their extraordinary easing measures. So it might come as a surprise to see US inflation expectations rising in a vertical fashion. At […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Apple Mania Investors can’t seem to get enough Apple, driving its shares to new heights each and every day. Its market cap is fast approaching $2 trillion. A year ago it stood at $890 billion. Apple’s stock is up […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Amazon Economy It’s hard to imagine a scenario that would have benefited Amazon more than forcing brick-and-mortar stores to close and telling people to stay home. And benefit they did, with 40% revenue growth in the past year, […]
How quickly things change. Back in March, there were widespread fears of a second Great Depression. A few months later, as stocks surged, everyone was talking about the “v-shaped recovery.” What does the data suggest? Let’s take a look. First, we need to put the pre-covid economic environment in context. In February when the economy […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Great Expectations Tesla reported earnings this week with high expectations going in. A year ago, the stock was trading at less than 2x sales. Before earnings, it was trading at an incredible 12x sales, with its stock up over […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Bonds for the Long Run? Total returns over the last 20 years… US Stocks: +227% Long-term US Corporate Bonds: 378% Corporate bonds yields were at 8% 20 years ago. Today they’re at 2.05%, an all-time low. The future is […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Big 4 On March 9, 2009, the combined market cap of Apple, Microsoft, Google (Alphabet), and Amazon was $326 billion. Their combined market cap today: $5.77 trillion, up more than 17x since 3/9/09. 2) Dividends … Down S&P […]
Put these charts on your wall for reference the next time you think… Stocks can’t go up during a recession… It’s “oversold” or “at support” and has to bounce… It’s “overbought” or “at resistance” and can‘t possibly go higher… Investors are rational and would never pay $239.50 for something worth $22.83… It can’t go below $0… Interest rates can’t go […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The King of Buybacks Apple has bought back $338 billion in stock over the past 7 years, which is greater than the market cap of 492 companies in the S&P 500. 2) Top S&P 500 Stocks … Last 20 […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. Dow Winners and Losers… It’s a tale of sectors in the Dow this year. Large tech names (Microsoft and Apple) are acting as if they are immune to recession while the shutdown has hit Industrials (Boeing, Raytheon), Energy (Exxon […]
In 2000, the dot-com bubble began to burst. Tech stocks finished the year down 42%. (note: using S&P 500 technology sector ETF ($XLK) as a proxy for the tech sector.) In 2001, the recession officially began, and tech stocks finished down 23%. In 2002, the carnage finally ended, but not before another 38% decline. The […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. The Worst Risk/Reward in History? Yields on investment grade US corporate bonds hit a new all-time low this week: 2.23%. 2. The Irrational Investor Would you pay someone $205 for an asset worth only $21.87? Investors in the Ethereum […]
Would you pay someone $205 for an asset worth only $21.87? Of course not; what a ridiculous question. And yet, investors in the Ethereum Trust ($ETHE) are doing just that, paying a stunning 837% premium above the net asset value (NAV) of the underlying holdings (Ethereum, a cryptocurrency). Why would anyone do such an irrational […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. From Nikola to … The mania is back, this time in a company called Nikola ($NKLA), named after famous inventor Nikola Tesla. Hyped as a potential competitor to Tesla, the hybrid truck design company’s stock has skyrocketed. On Tuesday, […]
Non-taxable stimulus checks, extra unemployment benefits paying many workers more than when they were working, forgivable loans for small business, grants and loans for large corporations, payments to state and local governments, grants for healthcare providers, and more. “How are we paying for all of this?” I’ve been getting this question more and more lately. […]
The yield on investment grade corporate bonds has moved all the way down to 2.35%. If the month ended today, that would be the lowest monthly close in history. Why is this important? Because the single best predictor of future returns for bonds are its starting yield. On average, the higher the starting yield, the […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. Winners and Losers The best and worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 this year… 2. Jobs Coming Back … Slowly The US Unemployment Rate moved down to 13.3% in May from 14.7% in April. The […]
High Yield credit spreads are lower today than they were during market corrections in 2011 and 2016. The same is true for Investment Grade credit spreads. Why is this notable? There were no recessions in 2011 or 2016 and today were are faced with what could be the largest economic contraction since the Great Depression. […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. Mortgage Rates at Historic Lows The 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US hit another all-time low this week: 3.15%. 2. 81 … As in 81 Central Banks around the world cutting interest rates thus far in 2020. We’ve never […]
What were your new year’s resolutions entering 2020? If you’re like most people, your list probably included at least one of the following: Lose weight. Get back in shape. Eat healthier. Be less stressed. Get more sleep. Spend more quality time with your family. Get out of debt, save more. Read more. Learn something new. […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. $7 Trillion and Counting The Fed’s balance sheet moved above $7 trillion this week for the first time, with $2.9 trillion in asset purchased in just the last 3 months. In 2008, the Fed increased its assets by over […]
If the dichotomy between markets and the economy has left you dazed and confused, you’re not alone. For on one side of the ledger, you have… 16.5% of the US labor force on unemployment, the highest on record (data back to 1967). US Employment to Population Ratio down to 51.3%, a new low. The prior […]
Surreal. In driving through Manhattan a few weeks ago, that’s the only way I could possibly describe it. Stores closed. Streets empty. Sounds of silence. Even the crossroads of the world, Times Square, was desolate. As a lifelong New Yorker, it felt like a dream. A dream that has now lasted for nearly 2 months. […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing. 1. Industrial Production US Industrial Production is down 15% year-over-year. Capacity Utilization Rate fell to 64.9%, lowest level on record (data back to 1967). 2. Retail Sales US Retail Sales are down 17.8% year-over-year, largest decline on record (data back […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing. 1. US Unemployment Highest since Depression US Unemployment Rate moves up to 14.7%. The peak % in prior recessions…2007-09: 10.0%2001: 6.3%1990-1991: 7.8%1981-1982: 10.8%1973-75: 9.0%1969-70: 6.1%1960-61: 7.1%1957-58: 7.5%1953-54: 6.1%1948-49: 7.9% pic.twitter.com/5VuZB958WV — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) May 8, 2020 US Employment to […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing. 1. 1 out of 3 … on Facebook 1 out of 3 people on the planet are now using using facebook on a monthly basis. 2.6 billion MAU / 7.8 billion global population = 33.33% Facebook Monthly Active Users, Billions […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing. 1. Unemployment Rising at Record Pace 12.5% of the labor force in the US is on unemployment as of the end of last week. 2. Pizza vs. Software Software is eating the world and the world is eating pizza. Two […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing. 1. Bank Earnings Crushed Bank Earnings…$C: $2.5b profit (-46% YoY), added $7b to loan loss reserves$BAC: $4b profit (-45% YoY), $3.6b loan reserves$GS: $1.2b profit (-46% YoY), $937m loan reserves$WFC: $653m profit (-89% YoY), $3.1b loan reserves$JPM: $2.9b profit (-69% […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing. 1. Good Friday New York COVID-19 hospitalizations continue to trend lower… 2. Forza Italia Italy reported the lowest number of new COVID-19 cases since March 13 (3,039), 7-day average lowest since March 13-19. (See related post) 3. One Downtrend We […]
Italy. No country has been hit harder by this virus. The bad news there has been unrelenting, day after day, week after week. It almost seemed as if it would never end. But alas, there is a glimmer of hope. I’ve been tracking the number of new COVID-19 cases in Italy, and over the past […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing. 1. A Turn for the Better in Hard-hit Italy 🙏 Italy has reported an average of 4,428 new COVID-19 cases over the last 5 days, the lowest 5-day average since March 15-19. Hoping and praying this continues… 2. Crude Oil […]
Test, test, test. That has become the mantra in battling the novel coronavirus. The more testing we do, the more information we have, and the better decisions we can make about the best way to move forward. This is a sensible strategy, but only testing the sickest among us is giving us incomplete information, and […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing.. 1. Big Swings Continue The Dow was up 11.37% on Tuesday, its 4th largest gain in history (see recent post). If we look back at the top 25 daily gains historically, 15 occurred during the Great Depression (August 1929 – […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. Back to 0% In a 2nd emergency cut, the Fed moved 100 bps to bring interest rates back down to an all-time low of 0.00-0.25%. Other Central Banks cutting rates this week: New Zealand, Canada, Norway, UK, Australia, South […]
I’m interrupting your regularly scheduled programming of the coming apocalypse to bring you some encouraging news… The world is not coming to an end – not by a long shot. We are figuring this thing out, and faster than anyone could have ever predicted. In South Korea, they have been testing 20,000 people per day […]
The Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the “fear index,” ended today at 82.69. Since its inception in 1990 it has never had a higher close. When was the previous record? November 20, 2008. In the midst of the Global Financial Crisis, after the Lehman Bankruptcy, and 11 months into the worst recession since the […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. Oil Crashes Crude Oil fell over 24% on Monday, the 2nd largest 1-day decline in history. Energy stocks fell in tandem, with the largest 5-day decline for the Energy sector ever ($XLE -34.6%). 2. Remember Tilray? It’s now down […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. New All-Time Low in Mortgage Rates It’s official… The 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US hit a new all-time low this week: 3.29%. 2. Let the Easing Begin… In the first emergency move since 2008, the Fed cut rates […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Volatility Returns This was the largest weekly spike in the history of the Volatility Index. +135% (Note: VIX started in 1990). 2) Historic Decline in Dow The Dow declined 13% over the past 6 trading days. Going back to […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) 1.90% … for 30 Years? The 30-Year US Treasury Yield closed at an all-time low today: 1.90%. On October 26, 1981, it closed at an all-time high of 15.21%. My how times have changed. 2) Software is eating the […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Growth vs. Value The ratio of growth stocks to value stocks is at its highest level in 19 years. The top 10 holdings in the large cap growth ETF (IWF)… The top 10 holdings in the large cap value […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) All-Time Highs … Again Well, that was quick. After a brief 3% pullback on “coronavirus concerns,” the S&P 500 and other major US indices rocketed back to new all-time highs this week. For the S&P 500, it was the […]
5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. Copper and Coronavirus Down 12 days in a row, this is the longest down streak in history for Copper (data going back to 1971). Who is the largest importer of Copper? You guessed it … China. Fears about the […]
What returns are you expecting from bonds over the next five years? If you’re like most investors, your answer is probably too high. Why? Because of something called recency bias, the human tendency to give more weight to the recent past in making projections about the future. And why is that a problem today? Because […]
What brings meaning to your life? There’s no more important question. But how often do we take the time to sit and actually think about it? Days turn into weeks, weeks turn into months, and months turn into years. ‘We’ll focus on it tomorrow; there’s still plenty of time.’ And so the question remains, burning […]
Here are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2019… I. From Humble Beginnings “Bear Market. Inverted Yield Curve. Trade War. Government Shutdown. Recession.” These were just a few of the ominous buzzwords heard at the start of 2019. The S&P 500 had just suffered its worst December since the Great Depression (-9%) […]