View the video of this post on YouTube here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Markets don’t move in straight lines, and 2025 has been a masterclass in that. That’s why I partnered with YCharts to create a visual breakdown of the most important market trends and what they could signal for the road ahead. Download the […]
View the video of this post here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Markets don’t move in straight lines, and 2025 has been a masterclass in that. That’s why I partnered with YCharts to create the 2025 Halftime Report deck: a visual breakdown of the most important market trends from the first half of the year, and […]
View the video of this post here. Your home is your castle, and if you’re like most Americans, it is also the single largest component of your net worth. Naturally, you would love to see your home appreciate in value over time. But by how much – what’s a reasonable expectation? To answer that question, let’s […]
View the video of this post here. When investors think about risk, it’s the extremes that immediately come to mind… The commonality: fear, panic, and catastrophic losses. While these periods are all front and center in our minds, the reality is that risk is always present, even if you can’t always see it. It’s now been […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Click here to view my recent live show with YCharts covering the Most Important Rules for Investors and What to Expect in 2025. Put these charts on your […]
View the video of this post here. As we approach year end, get a FREE Wealth Path Analysis from Creative Planning to ensure you’re on the right path for 2025 and beyond. What’s included? 1) Returns Are Lumpy The stock market goes up over time, but not all the time. It’s far from straight line higher and most […]
View the video of this post here. Receive a Free Wealth Path Analysis from a Creative Planning advisor today. At Creative Planning, we’re proud to help clients experience a richer way to wealth in all 50 states and abroad, with over $325 billion in assets under management and advisement. So whether you’re in California, Texas, Florida, […]
View the video of this post on YouTube here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Click here to view their Top 23 Charts from 2023. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your YCharts subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — Put these charts on your wall for reference the next time you think… They say […]
“Higher risk, higher reward.” This is one of the most repeated maxims in investing, and the basis of Modern Portfolio Theory. It’s also intuitive: riskier investments should be compensated with a higher return. But what should happen and what actually happens is not always one in the same… It’s May 2006 and Gold is all […]
Note: view the video of this post here. The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) A Good Start What a difference a year makes. In the first 21 trading days of 2022, the S&P 500 was down 5%, the worst start for the index since […]
Note: view the video of this post here. The charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Inflation is Slowing Fast The overall US inflation rate (YoY % Change) moved down in December for the 6th consecutive month. At 6.5%, this is the lowest inflation rate […]
Note: view the video of this post here. Here are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2022… I. Starting Off With a Bang The first day of trading in 2022 felt very much like 2021. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high and Apple hit yet another market cap milestone, becoming […]
For the first time in over a decade, the S&P 500 is down more than 20% from its prior high on a monthly closing basis (total returns including dividends). The current drawdown, at nine months and counting, is now the longest we’ve seen since the 2007-09 bear market. Volatility has been rising all year and […]
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett “Greed, for lack of a better word, is good” – Gordon Gekko, Wall Street […]
Is the US economy in a recession? Everyone seems to be asking that question. Why? Likely because we just learned that real GDP contracted for the second straight quarter. And the last 10 times we’ve seen consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, the US was indeed in a recession. With data going back to 1947, […]
Notes: Every week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most important charts and themes in markets (Subscribe here). Click here for a video on this post. Put these charts on your wall for reference the next time you think… It’s “oversold” or “at support” and can’t possibly go any lower… […]
Note: for my video on this post, click here. The first half of 2022 was one of the most painful periods in history for investors… The S&P 500 fell 20%, on pace for its largest annual decline since 2008 and 3rd largest ever (after 1931 and 2008). The 10-Year Treasury bond fell 11.5%, on pace […]
After years of hard work, you’re ready to retire. You’ve been a disciplined saver and investor, building up a sizable nest egg that should allow you to maintain your current lifestyle throughout your golden years. Your biggest fear? A devastating bear market that would significantly reduce the value of your portfolio and put you at […]
It’s official: the Bear Market of 2022. The S&P 500 has now fallen 20.9% from its high in early January, the largest decline for the index since March 2020. The question everyone’s asking: what happens next? To answer that, we often look back at history, attempting to find parallels with the past. But even a […]
“Hence the prices of common stocks are not carefully thought out computations, but the resultants of a welter of human reactions. The stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine. It responds to factual data not directly, but only as they affect the decisions of buyers and sellers.” – Graham and Dodd, Security Analysis […]
The market has gone up over time. But not all the time; far from it. And therein lies the challenge, for you can’t have one (long-term gain) without the other (short-term pain). Since 1990, the S&P 500 has returned an impressive 10% per year. And it’s done so despite two 50+% bear markets and being […]
I Don’t Know Three words that are rarely heard in the investment business and at the same time the most important to long-term success. Why? Because the future is unknown and having the humility to admit that is very hard for us to do. We’re wired instead with overconfidence – we tend to overestimate our […]
Cash is king. At least for the moment. In the first quarter of 2022, short-term Treasury bills finished marginally higher (+0.03%) while both the 10-Year Treasury bond (-6.64%) and the S&P 500 (-4.95%) declined. The greatest fear among many investors is that this trend will continue. Is this a rational fear? How often has cash […]
The US Unemployment Rate moved down to 3.6% in March, its lowest level since the start of the pandemic and well below the historical average of 5.75%. If you asked most people, they would probably say this is a bullish sign, where a strong economy is good news for the stock market. But is this […]
The markets are volatile, the news is bad, and the value of your portfolio is going down. You’re afraid things may get worse and you want to do something about it. This is a perfectly normal reaction. When faced with something painful, we look for ways to ease the pain. While such a response serves […]