5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing…
1) Bonds for the Long Run?
Total returns over the last 20 years…
US Stocks: +227%
Long-term US Corporate Bonds: 378%
Corporate bonds yields were at 8% 20 years ago.
Today they’re at 2.05%, an all-time low.
The future is not the past.
2) The Tesla Mania
The Tesla mania reached new heights on this week when the stock ran past 1,600 and 1,700 on Monday before reversing course at 1794.99.
At one point on Monday, Tesla’s market passed JPMorgan to become 10th largest US company.
Why is this fascinating?
- JPMorgan Revenue over last yr: $115 billion
- JPMorgan Net Income over last yr: $30 billion
- Tesla Revenue over last yr: $26 billion
- Tesla Net Income over last yr: -$144 million
3) Netflix and the Stay-at-Home Economy
Netflix reported revenues up 24.9% over the past year, the company’s 29th consecutive quarter of >20% YoY growth.
Paid subscribers surged higher in the first half of the year to 193 million, an increase of 15.5% from year-end. For comparison, subscribers grew 20% in all of 2019 and 18% in all of 2018.
Netflix Paid Subscribers (Millions)…
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 16, 2020
2020 (Q2): 193
2019: 167
2018: 139
2017: 118
2016: 94
2015: 75
2014: 57
2013: 44
2012: 33
2011: 24
2010: 20
2009: 12
2008: 9.4
2007: 7.5
2006: 6.3
2005: 4.2
2004: 2.6
2003: 1.5
2002: 0.8
2001: 0.5$NFLX
4) COVID Trackers
Reported Tests, Cases & Deaths as % of Country Population…
(Note: the key word here is “reported.” There’s a huge variation in testing rates from country to country and how deaths are counted. These variations have a large impact on the data.)
US breakdown by state…
5) Mortgage Rates Move Closer to 0
The 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US fell below 3% for the first time in history: 2.98%.
The Fed remains a buyer at any price.
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And that’s it for this week. Thanks for reading.
Have a great weekend everyone!
-Charlie
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