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7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing…
1) In Search of Greener Pastures
The percentage of workers in the US that are quitting their jobs has never been higher.
2) Back to 2007
US High Yield credit spreads hit their tightest levels since July 2007.
3) Price Increases Continue
Producer Prices in the US continue to surge, up 6.6% YoY overall and +4.8% YoY excluding food/energy (Core).
US Export Prices increased 17.4% over the last year, the highest increase on record.
Meanwhile, at last week’s Fed meeting, they continued to dismiss the sharp rise in prices as “transitory” with a commitment to continued easing (QE and 0% interest rates).
4) $8 Trillion and Counting
Speaking of easing, the Fed’s Balance has crossed above $8 trillion for the first time. Two years ago it was under $4 trillion.
The Fed’s Balance Sheet has now increased over 1,000% since 2002.
The S&P 500 is up 596% over the same time period…
5) Filling the Meme Gap
Another morning, another meme. Corsair Gaming was the latest, seeing its shares gap up sharply last Monday only to completely fill the gap by the end the week.
This price action follows similar gap fills in meme favorite’s Clover Health ($CLOV) and Wendy’s ($WEN)…
6) Tightening Cycle Ahead?
Brazil hiked rates last week for the 3rd time this year, one of the few central banks thus far to respond to rising prices with a normalization of policy.
The question everyone is asking is when will the US do the same. While the Fed’s projections indicate no rate hike until 2023, Jim Bullard of the St. Louis Fed argued last week that a rate hike could come sooner (early as late 2022).
7) New Covid Lows, Travel Highs
Covid-19 cases/deaths in the US continue to hit new pandemic lows, down 96%/92% from their peaks in January.
But what about the new Delta variant, originally discovered in India?
Thankfully, similar to the UK variant, the South African variant, and the Brazilian variant, the vaccines have proven to be highly effective in protecting against hospitalization and death thus far.
As covid-19 continues to decline, travel continues to normalize. There were over 1.9 million airline travelers per day over the last week in the US, highest since March 11, 2020. A year ago we were averaging 500k/day and at the pandemic low last April below 100k/day.
Thanks for reading.
Hope everyone had a great weekend/Father’s day!
-Charlie
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