US Bonds are on pace for their worst year in history, down over 11% year-to-date. On a monthly basis, this is now the longest US bond market drawdown ever (25 months and counting) and the largest (-12.3%) since 1980. Why are bonds falling? Interest rates are rising at a rapid rate from historic lows, and […]
Inertia is a powerful force – and if you’re like most Americans – you’re still earning almost nothing on your cash because if it. According to Bankrate.com, the national average yield on a savings account is a paltry 0.13%. Many of the largest banks (Bank of America, Chase, HSBC, Wells Fargo, and Citibank) are offering even […]
In late August 1930, identical twins Warren and Wally were born in Omaha, Nebraska. They came from a long line of great investors and much was expected of them. While Warren seemed to inherit these genes, Wally wasn’t so lucky and had no investing acumen whatsoever. As teenagers, Warren and Wally were each given a […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Click here for the latest research from YCharts on whether […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 10 charts and themes from the past week that tell […]
Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 7 charts and themes from the past week that […]
The market has gone up over time. But not all the time; far from it. And therein lies the challenge, for you can’t have one (long-term gain) without the other (short-term pain). Since 1990, the S&P 500 has returned an impressive 10% per year. And it’s done so despite two 50+% bear markets and being […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 9 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Two Steps Forward, One Step Back That’s the path all investors must take, as there is no upside without intermittent […]
This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. ___ 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Wars and Fat Tails Financial markets do not follow a bell curve. Instead, they operate in the world of fat […]
Note: I have a new video channel on YouTube where I’ll be sharing my latest thoughts on markets and investing. Check out the most recent video on the upcoming Fed rate hike here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. ___ 6 charts from the past […]
Sign up here for our weekly newsletter. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Hello $29 Trillion The US National Debt […]
Bezos. Gates. Buffett. Zuckerberg. Musk. A list of the wealthiest Americans all have one thing in common: concentrated positions in a single company’s stock that they founded. It’s tempting to believe that is the model you should follow in your own investment portfolio, but for most, that would be a mistake. Why? Because the odds […]
During the covid crash last year we saw central banks around the world ease policy like never before. Rate cuts, asset purchases, and more – everything was on the table. By the end of 2020, this is what a chart of central bank interest rates and inflation looked like… And this what it looks like […]
There are two types of investors: Pundits and Professionals… <> The Pundit thinks they know everything. The Professional knows that learning is infinite. <> The Pundit makes subjective predictions. The Professional makes objective assessments. <> The Pundit seeks self-promotion. The Professional seeks self-improvement. <> The Pundit exudes hubris. The Professional exudes humility. <> The Pundit […]
Over the past few months, we’ve made considerable progress in defeating covid-19… 45% of Americans (148 million people) are now vaccinated with at least 1 dose. In the most vulnerable age group (65+, which has seen >80% of covid-19 deaths), we’re at 85%. If we add in those who have been infected with covid-19 (but […]
Last month I outlined the data pointing to the beginning of the end of covid-19. Since then, I’m happy to report that some incredible progress has been made… Covid-19 hospitalizations in the US have declined 40 days in a row, down over 57% from their peak on January 6. At 56,159, hospitalizations are now back […]
There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 91 FOMC Meetings… Before 79 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]
On March 16, the Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 82.69, a record high. All of the news that day was bad news and it seemed like that would never end. I wrote a post at the time… “When all news is bad news it can seem as if it will be that way forever. But […]
The is a story about belief. But first, let’s do a little time traveling… 1) It’s July 2010. Bitcoin is trading at 5 cents. What’s a Bitcoin? 2) It’s February 2011. Bitcoin is trading at $1.10, a 2,100% increase in 7 months. This is what the chart looks like… What’s the first word that comes […]
It’s election night and many are worried about the future. Only adding to anxieties is the fact that both sides have painted a bleak picture of what America will look like if the other wins. I’m here to tell you they’re wrong. Life will go on, and things will get better. The election that seems […]
It has become commonplace to compare covid-19 outcomes in one country to another. By now you’re all familiar with the arguments… “Country A did better. Country B did worse. Country A and their leaders should be praised; Country B and their leaders should be condemned.” Lost in these simplistic conclusions are the many important factors […]
“Ask no questions, and you’ll be told no lies.” – Charles Dickens, Great Expectations What returns are you expecting from equities going forward? “At least 20% a year.” That was a conversation I had last week with an investor. It gives you an idea where we are in terms of sentiment. How did they arrive […]
Put these charts on your wall for reference the next time you think… Stocks can’t go up during a recession… It’s “oversold” or “at support” and has to bounce… It’s “overbought” or “at resistance” and can‘t possibly go higher… Investors are rational and would never pay $239.50 for something worth $22.83… It can’t go below $0… Interest rates can’t go […]
Would you pay someone $205 for an asset worth only $21.87? Of course not; what a ridiculous question. And yet, investors in the Ethereum Trust ($ETHE) are doing just that, paying a stunning 837% premium above the net asset value (NAV) of the underlying holdings (Ethereum, a cryptocurrency). Why would anyone do such an irrational […]
If the dichotomy between markets and the economy has left you dazed and confused, you’re not alone. For on one side of the ledger, you have… 16.5% of the US labor force on unemployment, the highest on record (data back to 1967). US Employment to Population Ratio down to 51.3%, a new low. The prior […]