You’ve heard the story before: Equity valuations are high… Interest rates are low…. Therefore, high valuations are “justified” by lower interest rates. Why? Some say it’s because stocks are simply the present value of their future cash flows. And lower interest rates (r) in the denominator of that equation should result in a higher present value, and […]
Valuations in the US are high, exceeding all prior periods in history with the exception of the dot-com bubble (March 1998 to December 2000).1 The long-run implications of higher valuations? Lower future returns and higher volatility/drawdowns, on average (see recent post). The natural question that follows: what, if anything, can an investor do about this? […]
US inflation expectations continue to rise, now at their highest levels since 2008. If higher inflation is coming (see here for some signs), many investors are wondering how that will impact their portfolio. Let’s take a look at how stocks and bonds have performed historically under various levels of inflation… If we segment calendar year […]
Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… 96.8% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average. This is the highest percentage ever. When this many stocks are participating in a rising market, many consider it a sign of strength (“good breadth”) and a bullish indicator for […]
“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.” – Warren Buffett With all due respect to Warren Buffett, the most important rule in investing is not anything close to “never lose money.” In fact, the entire notion is absurd. Anyone who has ever invested in the history of the […]
US manufacturing is booming. In a report released last week, the ISM Manufacturing Index moved up to 64.7, its highest level since 1983. Many are saying that’s great news for the stock market because higher manufacturing activity is evidence of a stronger economy. This seems logical but does the data support such a conclusion? And […]
Momentum and Mean Reversion. The two most powerful forces in markets. Momentum dictates that what has done the best in the past will continue to do the best and Mean Reversion just the opposite – where what is done the worst will eventually do the best, reverting back to its mean. That both can be […]
Years from now, we’ll look back and say it was obvious. That the signs of a historic mania were clear as day, with a billion a day in SPACs being the most prominent. You read that correctly: $1 billion per day has been raised in the SPAC IPO market this year, an astounding figure. At […]
The CAPE Ratio just crossed above 39.1 In layman’s terms, what exactly does that mean? Equity valuations in the US are quite high. How high? Going back to 1871, the only periods in history with a CAPE above 39 are as follows… September 1929 March 1998 to January 2001 Today In September 1929, the CAPE […]
Years from now we’ll look back at today as the day the stock market became a video game, replete with a cast of characters and a storyline to compete with the best of them. To be sure, it didn’t happen overnight. It’s been slowly building towards gamification since the start of the pandemic. Stuck at […]
Every bull market has a company that captures the hearts and minds of its investors. Today that company – more than any other – is Tesla. At a market cap of $834 billion, it recently surpassed Facebook to become the 5th largest company in the US. A year ago it had a market cap of […]
There’s been a lot of crazy things going on in markets lately, but this one may top them all. Last Thursday morning, Elon Musk sent out this tweet to his 41 million followers… What’s Signal? It’s a messaging app for your phone and an alternative to WhatsApp, which has been criticized recently for privacy concerns […]
Over the last 20 years, long-term bonds have outperformed stocks (350% vs. 284%). Needless to say, this outcome will come as a surprise to many… (Note: in this post I’m using the S&P 500 Index Fund (VFINX) as the proxy for “stocks” and the Vanguard Long-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund (VWESX) as the proxy for […]
The S&P 500’s P/E ratio has moved from 20.6 at the start of 2020 to 30.3 today, on pace for the highest year-end multiple in history. How is this possible in a year with a global pandemic and the largest economic contraction since the Great Depression? Investors are anticipating much brighter days ahead, with the […]
Snowflake’s price to sales ratio just hit 245 (using TTM sales of $490 million). With a current market cap of $120 billion, this begs the question: has there ever been a company in history as large as Snowflake with a higher valuation? I don’t believe so. Back in the dot-com mania, Cisco briefly hit a […]
2020 has become a boom year for IPOs, and it’s not over yet. In the next few weeks Airbnb (ABNB), Doordash (DASH), Wish (WISH), and Roblox (RBLX) are all expected to go public. In November, we saw the highest number of new IPO filings in the last 20 years. Why are companies rushing to cash […]
Here are the top 30 stocks in the S&P 500 over the past 30 years… These companies have delivered unfathomable returns to their shareholders. They have also delivered many periods of excruciating pain for anyone able to stick with them. When thinking about big winners in the stock market, excruciating pain probably isn’t the first […]
Studying market history is a worthy endeavor for investors. It can provide instructive parallels, much needed context, and reassurance during difficult times that “this too shall pass.” Problems arise, however, when one assumes that the range of possible outcomes in the future are limited to what has happened in the past. There is no better […]
“Ask no questions, and you’ll be told no lies.” – Charles Dickens, Great Expectations What returns are you expecting from equities going forward? “At least 20% a year.” That was a conversation I had last week with an investor. It gives you an idea where we are in terms of sentiment. How did they arrive […]
Snowflake went public today. Who? Snowflake, a cloud-based data storage and analytics company. You had me at “cloud.” What’s the ticker? $SNOW. Awesome, catchy and easy to remember. Are they profitable? No. They lost $349 million in the fiscal year ending in January and $171 million in the first six months of this year. Even […]
In 2000, the dot-com bubble began to burst. Tech stocks finished the year down 42%. (note: using S&P 500 technology sector ETF ($XLK) as a proxy for the tech sector.) In 2001, the recession officially began, and tech stocks finished down 23%. In 2002, the carnage finally ended, but not before another 38% decline. The […]